The three best-value MLB futures wagers to make at the all-star break: Avoid the Angels

New York Yankees center fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates with first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium.
Photo of Keith

Keith

MLB · 3 weeks ago

Show Bio

A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

We have reached the all-star break in the 162-game MLB season, so it’s time to re-evaluate our preseason bets and find the three best-value futures wages for the rest of the 2022 campaign. There are many different bets to look into such as division winner, league winner, World Series winner, win total, to make the playoffs or not and more. It was a great few months of baseball in the first half of the season, but the second half of the season is when it gets interesting.

Will your team be a buyer? A seller? A World Series contender? Only time will tell, but here are three of my favorite bets to make for the rest of the MLB season.

Los Angeles Angels under 75.5 wins (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

Through 92 games, the Angels are 39-53 — and it will probably only get worse. They have 70 games remaining in their season; to reach the over in their win projection they need to go 37-33 in the second half of the season. That seems hard to fathom, as Los Angeles will likely not make any moves at the trade deadline since it has a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs. It’s also important to remember that the Angels went into the all-star break losing 8 of their last 9 games.

Shohei Ohtani has the weight of the world on his shoulders for the Angels. In his last 7 starts, he is 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, but the problems arise in the other 5 games a week when he doesn’t pitch. Both Michael Lorenzen and Noah Syndergaard have ERAs above 4, and don’t even get me started on the Los Angeles bullpen. L.A.’s offense is good — but only for the first 4 batters. Ohtani, Luis Rengifo, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward make up a solid top of the order, but it goes downhill from there. It’s clear the Angels have wasted another year of Mike Trout and Ohtani in their prime. Take the Angels under 75.5 wins.

New York Yankees to win American League (+170)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

This is the best Yankees team that has been assembled in years. Aaron Judge led the New York offense with a .982 OPS and a ridiculous 33 home runs in the first half of the season, and surprisingly enough the star outfielder has managed to stay healthy this season. It has been common for Judge or Giancarlo Stanton to be on the injured list several times throughout the season, but the two sluggers have been in the lineup for the majority of games thus far. And it would be foolish to not acknowledge the success of Matt Carpenter, who is hitting .351 with a 1.371 OPS in just 31 games since being signed by New York in late May.

If the Yankees want to win a World Series this season, they need to end the Joey Gallo experiment. Gallo was good in Texas, but since coming to New York he has been a massive failure. He is hitting .164 with 11 home runs, but more importantly a 44.7% strikeout rate. He is the sole weak link of the New York offense that ranked 1st in slugging percentage, 1st in OPS and 2nd in on-base percentage in the first half. On the other side, New York’s starting rotation boasts the 3rd-best ERA and the bullpen has the second-best such mark. The Yankees’ pitching staff limited opponents to 3.24 runs per game — the lowest in all of baseball. It’s a gift that the Yankees are still being offered at plus odds to win the American League, so grab that price while you can.

Boston Red Sox not to make the MLB playoffs (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing

If the season ended today, the Red Sox would not be in the postseason. The AL East is the strongest division in baseball; all 5 teams are .500 or above and there’s no chance the Red Sox can overtake the Yankees. They are 16.5 games behind New York and they have fallen into 4th place in the division; things may not get better, either. The Rays, Mariners and Blue Jays currently hold the 3 wild-card spots, and it seems hard to imagine the Red Sox stealing one.

On Sunday, Chris Sale broke his finger and is likely done for the year. That was the 2nd start of the season for Sale, who just can’t seem to stay healthy in Boston. His injury adds even more stress to the Red Sox starting rotation which has been decimated with injuries this season. Soon the Red Sox will be faced with the decision to either be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, and many anticipate Boston to be the latter. J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Kiké Hernandez and Christian Vazquez are just a few of the numerous players in the last year of their contract, so Chaim Bloom and the Boston management could decide to trade some of the veterans for prospects for the future.

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.