UFC 258 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

Chris Gutierrez after his win at UFC Fight Night Uruguay
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 year ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC 258. Our event this week will feature a Welterweight title fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +720. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 258 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Miranda Maverick Money Line (-146)

To open the card at UFC 258, we will see Miranda Maverick take on Gillian Robertson in a UFC Women’s Flyweight division fight. Maverick comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. She is 1-0 in the UFC after winning her debut back in October of 2020. This was a win by TKO/KO against Liana Jojua. At least through one UFC fight, Maverick has showed a tremendous amount of power. She is averaging 9.80 significant strikes per minute and landing them 51 percent of the time. Because of her aggressive style, she is absorbing 6.00 strikes, though her striking defense is 62 percent and she has never been knocked out. The power shown by Maverick is likely going to be the difference here. Because of her striking ability, I will back Maverick to win.

Be sure to check out our full fight preview for Miranda Maverick vs. Gillian Robertson.

Philip Rowe Money Line (+116)

Second up at on the UFC 258 early preliminary card, we will see Gabriel Green take on Philip Rowe. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Rowe will make his official UFC debut here, coming into this fight with an MMA record of 7-2. His last fight was back in 2019, where he beat Leon Shahbazyan by TKO/KO at a Dana White’s Contender Series event. This is where he earned his UFC contract, but has gone silent since. Rowe is averaging 8.18 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 67 percent. He is absorbing 6.33 strikes and has been knocked out just once.

Green had an iron chin in his UFC debut, but he may not be quite as strong here against a guy with a ton of power. I cannot really justify this price on Green because of the damage he takes, so I will back Rowe to win his first official UFC fight.

Be sure to check out our full fight preview for Philip Rowe vs. Gabriel Green.

Ricky Simon Money Line (-290)

The third preliminary fight at UFC 258 will see Ricky Simon take on Brian Kelleher in a UFC Featherweight division fight. Simon comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-3. He is 6-2 in the UFC and could very well be closing in on a shot at the Featherweight title. Simon beat Gaetano Pirrello recently and was able to take him down seven times. He has now had at least seven takedowns in his last two fights. That said, clearly grappling is where Simon is going to look to dominate. He is averaging 7.07 takedowns per every 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy of 53 percent. His takedown defense is 72 percent, which will likely be key here.

This fight comes down to Simon’s takedown ability and whether or not he can control the fight on the ground. For the sake of this parlay, I am going to back Simon to win on the money line.

Be sure to check out our full fight preview for Ricky Simon vs. Brian Kelleher.

Chris Gutierrez Money Line (-148)

The fourth preliminary fight at UFC 258 will see Chris Gutierrez take on Andre Ewell in a UFC Catch Weight division fight. Gutierrez comes into this fight 15-4-2 in MMA and 3-1-1 in the UFC. His last fight ended up being a draw against Cody Durden. Gutierrez has not lost since his UFC debut back in 2018. He is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 58 percent of the time. He is only absorbing 2.11 strikes, has never been knocked out and has a striking defense of 62 percent.

Both of these fighters are pretty solid, but I would give the edge to Gutierrez because he takes less damage. His chin looks like it will be fine here, so I will be looking for Gutierrez to continue his unbeaten streak.

Be sure to check out our full fight preview for Chris Gutierrez vs. Andre Ewell.

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