UFC 260 predictions, picks, best bets and four-fight parlay

Vicente Luque being named the winner at UFC Fight Night: Montevideo

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

@Sixfigurematt

Updated: 13:25 PM ET March 26, 2021

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC 260. Our event this week will feature a Heavyweight title fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +500. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 260 predictions for the full 12-fight card.

Vicente Luque Money Line (-255)

Vicente Luque comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-7-1. He is 12-3 in the UFC and is coming off back to back TKO/KO wins. The most recent coming back in August of 2020 against Randy Brown. Luque is averaging 5.72 significant strikes per minute. He has a striking accuracy of 53 percent. Because of his aggressive style, Luque is absorbing 5.82 strikes per minute. Though he has never lost in the UFC by finish. Luque does have some grappling ability, averaging 0.68 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50 percent and a takedown defense of 64 percent.

With the recent three-fight losing streak for Tyron Woodley, I cannot back him here. At the same time, I am not convinced that Luque will be able to find a finish. For that reason, I am backing Luque to win on the money line.

Thomas Almeida/Sean O’Malley Fight to go the Distance – No (-205)

Thomas Almeida comes into this fight with a record of 21-4 in MMA and 5-4 in the UFC. He has lost his last three fights in a row, most recently to Jonathan Martinez. Almeida is still a great striker, averaging 5.39 strikes per minute, but has a striking accuracy of 44 percent. He is absorbing 4.69 strikes and has a striking defense of 64 percent.

Sean O’Malley comes into this fight 12-1 in MMA after suffering his first career loss to Marlon Vera. This was a loss by TKO/KO and came back in August of 2020. O’Malley is averaging 6.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57 percent. He is absorbing 3.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 64 percent.

O’Malley has seen his last three fights end inside the distance and six of Almeida’s nine UFC fights have done the same. For that reason, I am going to back there to be a finish here.

Jared Gooden/Abubakar Nurmagomedov Fight to go the Distance-Yes (-124)

This is an interesting fight because of the clash of styles we are expected to see. The long layoff for Abubakar Nurmagomedov would keep me off his side, but Jared Gooden also has a good enough takedown defense for me to believe this fight can go the distance. Gooden has only ever lost by decision and TKO/KO once. Because Nurmagomedov has not shown much power, I am going to back this fight to go a full three rounds.

Marc-Andre Barriault/Abu Azaitar Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-166)

Marc-Andre Barriault had been a knockout machine until joining the UFC. Since joining, all three of his fights have gone the distance. Abu Azaitar has also seen his last three fights go the distance. Because of the two-year eight-month layoff for Azaitar, I do not trust him to get the win here. At the same time, Barriault has been pretty inconsistent as well. Because of this, I am just going to back this fight to go the distance.