Matthew Lowrimore
UFC 316 takes place on Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It features a UFC Bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley as the Main Event and a UFC Women’s Bantamweight title fight between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison as the Co-Main Event.
Here are our UFC 316 best bets, which will include 2 fights on the Main Card. Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC 316 Main Card fights scheduled for Saturday.
UFC 316 Main Card Best Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
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Kayla Harrison Win by Finish over Julianna Pena
The Co-Main Event at UFC 316 will see Julianna Pena take on Kayla Harrison. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Bantamweight division, and it will be for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title. Harrison enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-1 and 2-0 in the UFC. She averages 4.87 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. Harrison absorbs 1.19 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Her grappling has also been elite, averaging 2.75 takedowns every 15 minutes and 0.7 submission attempts during the same period. She has a takedown accuracy of 30% and a takedown defense of 100%.
Harrison is the overwhelming favorite; therefore, we will be looking for her to win by finish. Harrison only has one win by finish in the UFC, but overall has won 13 times by finish in her MMA career. She has the significant advantage in both striking volume and grappling, while 2 of Pena’s 3 losses in the UFC have been by finish. For that reason, backing Harrison to win by finish will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC 316 parlay at +268 odds!
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer – Fight to go the Distance – No (-140)
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC 316 will see Kelvin Gastelum take on Joe Pyfer. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Pyfer is the clear favorite in this fight, so we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Pyfer has seen 5 of his last 6 UFC fights end inside the distance, and Gastelum has seen 14 of his last 28 career fights do the same. Because Pyfer has been finishing nearly all his opponents, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our best bet.
Check out the rest of our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 316!
UFC 316 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Waldo Cortes-Acosta ML over Serghei Spivac (+120)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta enters this fight with an MMA record of 13-1 and 7-1 in the UFC. He averages 5.76 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. Cortes-Acosta absorbs 3.47 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.49 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 50% and a takedown defense of 66%.
Serghei Spivac is the slight favorite in the fight, but Cortes-Acosta looks to be a prime candidate to pull the upset. Cortes-Acosta has won each of his last 4 UFC fights, while Spivac is 2-2 over the same stretch. Spivac is also lacking in striking volume and striking defense. Therefore, because Cortes-Acosta looks to be in better form, backing him to win will be our best bet.
