Matthew Lowrimore
UFC 316 takes place on Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. It features a UFC Bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley as the Main Event and a UFC Women’s Bantamweight title fight between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison as the Co-Main Event.
Here are my favorite UFC parlay picks for this card. Also, be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Merab Dvalishvili Win by Decision over Sean O’Malley (-165)
Patrick Mix ML over Mario Bautista (-180)
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland – Fight to go the Distance – No (-210)
Merab Dvalishvili Win by Decision over Sean O’Malley (-165)
The Main Event at UFC 316 will see Sean O’Malley take on Merab Dvalishvili in the UFC Bantamweight division and will be for the UFC Bantamweight title. Dvalishvili enters this fight with an MMA record of 18-4 and 11-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Dvalishvili is absorbing 2.51 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is elite, however, averaging 5.89 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 35% and a takedown defense of 82%.
Dvalishvili is the significant favorite given that he is the one holding the Bantamweight title. He also beat O’Malley in September 2024 by unanimous decision. O’Malley had no counter for Dvalishvili’s grappling in that first fight, and the same looks to be true here. Dvalishvili has won 11 times by decision in the UFC; therefore, backing Dvalishvili to win by decision and retain his UFC Bantamweight title will be our play.
You can also read our expert’s UFC 316 best bets
Patrick Mix ML over Mario Bautista (-180)
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 316 will see Mario Bautista take on Patrick Mix in the UFC Bantamweight division. Mix enters this fight with an MMA record of 20-1 and will be making his official UFC debut here. Despite not having fought in the UFC yet, Mix has had a successful career so far and has won 15 times by finish. His only loss was by decision, and that was nearly five years ago in September 2020.
Despite Mix making his UFC debut, he is a heavy favorite and looks to be a solid option to start his UFC career with a win. Mix has shown a ton of finishing ability, especially on the ground, where he has 13 wins by submission. Bautista has won 7 fights in a row, but has not always been the best at defending takedowns. For that reason, backing Mix to win will be our lean.
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland – Fight to go the Distance – No (-210)
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 316 will see Vicente Luque take on Kevin Holland in the UFC Welterweight division. For this matchup, we will target the fight to end inside the distance. Holland has seen 9 of his last 12 UFC fights end inside the distance. As for Luque, he has seen 7 of his last 9 UFC fights do the same. Therefore, because both fighters have had a high finish rate recently, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our lean.
Don’t miss our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 316
