Matthew Lowrimore
UFC 317 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. It features a UFC Lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira as the Main Event and a UFC Flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France as the Co-Main Event.
Here are my favorite UFC parlay picks for this card. Also, be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France – Over 2.5 Rounds (-245)
Felipe Lima ML over Payton Talbott (-192)
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira – Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)
The Main Event at UFC 317 will see Ilia Topuria take on Charles Oliveira. This will be a fight in the UFC Lightweight division and for the vacant UFC Lightweight title after former holder Islam Makhachev moved up to the Welterweight division.
Because Topuria is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, we will be targeting a total rounds bet. Topuria has seen five of his eight UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds, which includes each of his last four UFC fights. As for Oliveira, he has seen four of his last six UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds. Therefore, because Topuria and Oliveira have been able to last deep into most of their fights recently, backing over 1.5 rounds will be our play.
You can also read our expert’s UFC 317 best bets
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France – Over 2.5 Rounds (-245)
The Co-Main Event at UFC 317 will see Alexandre Pantoja take on Kai Kara-France. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division and will be for the UFC Flyweight title.
Because Pantoja is the clear favorite in this fight, we will be targeting a total rounds prop. Pantoja has seen three of his last four UFC fights go over 2.5 rounds, while Kara-France has also seen three of his last four UFC fights do the same. Further, Pantoja has never lost by finish, and while Kara-France has several losses by finish, he tends to go deep into his fights. For that reason, backing over 2.5 rounds will be our play.
Felipe Lima ML over Payton Talbott (-192)
The first fight on the Main Card at UFC 317 will see Payton Talbott take on Felipe Lima. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Lima enters this fight with an MMA record of 14-1 and 2-0 in the UFC. He averages 3.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Lima absorbs 2.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 72%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.71 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. Lima has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 83%.
Lima is the heavy favorite in this fight, but still looks to be the best betting option. He has only fought in two UFC fights, but both were wins in dominant fashion. Talbott does have the advantage in striking volume, but Lima has the clear edge in grappling. Talbott especially struggled with grappling in his most recent fight, as he was taken down eight times in what ended up being his first UFC loss. Because Talbott has shown signs of not being able to grapple effectively, and that is one of Lima’s strengths, backing Lima to win will be our play.
Don’t miss our UFC picks for every main card fight at UFC 317
