UFC goes down under this weekend when Fight Night 275 hits the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, featuring a Welterweight fight between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates as the main event. I have 3 best bets for UFC Fight Night 275, all of which are on the main card, and I’m ready to break each of them down for you.
Let’s get into it, and be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC Fight Night 275 main-card contests.
UFC best bet: Carlos Prates ML over Jack Della Maddalena (-118)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -118.
Prates has a sparkling professional record at 23-7 overall and 7-1 in the UFC. He averages 3.77 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 55%, and he absorbs 4.53 strikes per minute with a striking defense of 47%. He has shown little grappling ability, averaging just 0.21 takedowns every 15 minutes. That said, he has a takedown accuracy of 100% and a takedown defense of 80%.
Prates is the small favorite in this fight, and the affordable price is of value. Della Maddalena only has 3 professional losses and may have the advantage in terms of striking volume, but Prates seems to have much more power considering all of his UFC wins were by finish. Prates also has a bigger frame and a longer reach, which pairs nicely with the power. Further, neither fighter prefers to grapple, but Prates tends to be much more successful at it, with perfect takedown accuracy and a strong takedown defense. Give me Prates in this one.
Read our full Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates prediction
UFC prediction: Brando Percic ML over Shamil Gaziev (-130)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -130.
The second fight on the main card at UFC Fight Night 275 will see Shamil Gaziev take on Brando Pericic in the UFC Heavyweight division. Percic enters this fight with an MMA record of 6-1 and 2-0 in the UFC, averaging 12.91 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 64%. On the other side, he absorbs 3.23 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. Percic doesn’t really grapple, but his takedown defense is very good at 80%.
Even though his UFC career has been short, Percic has already shown tremendous striking ability. Gaziev, on the other hand, has the advantage in grappling, but Percic’s takedown defense has been strong enough to negate the edge Gaziev has in this department. Look for Percic to start fast and earn the win.
Read our full Brando Percic vs. Shamil Gaziev prediction
UFC pick: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland – Fight to Start Round 2 (-200)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -200.
The first fight on the main at UFC Fight Night 275 pits Tai Tuivasa and Louie Sutherland in the UFC Heavyweight division. Tuivasa is the heavy favorite, but I have a hard time trusting him given his 6 straight losses. Given his inconsistencies in the UFC, let’s look at a round prop. Through 2 UFC fights, Sutherland has failed to reach the second round, losing by KO/TKO to Pericic and by submission to Valter Walker. That said, Tuivasa has seen 6 of his last 8 UFC fights enter at least the second round. Look for that trend to continue and for Sutherland to play it safe early in this fight.
Read our full Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland prediction
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