UFC 275: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Prediction for Saturday, 05/02/26

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 275 will see Tai Tuivasa take on Louie Sutherland. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Tuivasa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-9 and 8-9 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Tuivasa is absorbing 4.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. He has not shown any grappling ability and has a takedown defense of 60%.

Sutherland enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-5 and 0-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Sutherland absorbs 7.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 22%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 4.69 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33%, but has not defended a takedown in the UFC.

Tuivasa is the heavy favorite; however, given his inconsistencies in the UFC, we will be looking at a round prop. Sutherland has seen both of his UFC fights end in the first round, while Tuivasa has seen 6 of his last 8 UFC fights enter at least the second round. Given this, backing this fight to start the second round will be our lean.