UFC 275: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Prediction

UFC 275: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Prediction for Saturday, 05/02/26

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UFC 275: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Pickswise Expert Predictions

Round Prop Pick
Fight to Start Round 2(-200)

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 275 will see Tai Tuivasa take on Louie Sutherland. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Tuivasa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-9 and 8-9 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Tuivasa is absorbing 4.97 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. He has not shown any grappling ability and has a takedown defense of 60%.

Sutherland enters this fight with an MMA record of 10-5 and 0-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. Sutherland absorbs 7.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 22%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 4.69 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 33%, but has not defended a takedown in the UFC.

Tuivasa is the heavy favorite; however, given his inconsistencies in the UFC, we will be looking at a round prop. Sutherland has seen both of his UFC fights end in the first round, while Tuivasa has seen 6 of his last 8 UFC fights enter at least the second round. Given this, backing this fight to start the second round will be our lean.

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Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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