U.S. Open Day 13 best bets: Fernandez vs Raducanu in shocking women’s final

Emma Raducanu U.S. Open
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Ricky Dimon

Tennis· 2 weeks ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Before the tournament started if you had the women’s U.S. Open final being Leylah Fernandez vs Emma Raducanu, you would be rich regardless of the amount of money staked. It is a hard-to-believe matchup featuring the No. 73 player in the world (Fernandez) and the No. 150 player in the world (Raducanu). In fact, Raducanu is the first qualifier in history to reach the final of a Grand Slam.

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Emma Raducanu -2.5 games over Leylah Fernandez (-117)

Although the quality of play in Saturday’s championship match will almost certainly live up to the hype, I’m not sure the scoreline will do the same. In nine matches at this tournament (three in qualifying), Raducanu is 18-0 in total sets. The 18-year-old Brit has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker and nobody in the main draw has taken more than four games in any set. She is simply crushing people. Fernandez, on the other hand, is coming off four consecutive three-set thrillers. That isn’t her fault; the 19-year-old Canadian has faced a much tougher draw (Naomi Osaka, Angelique Kerber, Elina Svitolina, Aryna Sabalenka). But the physical and mental struggle of such matches has to take its toll. Of course, it’s not like Raducanu is beating slouches. She is coming off back-to-back victories over Tokyo Olympics gold medalist Belinda Bencic and French Open semifinalist Maria Sakkari. With Raducanu in this kind of dominant form, you can’t bet against her.

Leylah Fernandez vs. Emma Raducanu Under 21.5 games (-107)

Something has to give on Saturday. Fernandez has played four three-setters in a row. Raducanu, on the other hand, has played nine consecutive straight-setters. Not one of the world No. 150’s nine matches in New York has lasted more than 21 games. Nobody in the main draw has stayed on the court with her for more than 19 games. Meanwhile, Fernandez’s last four matches have required more than two hours and her shortest match of the tournament has lasted one hour and 45 minutes. That’s a lot of tennis. It wouldn’t be surprising if she hits the wall against an absolutely on-fire opponent. The value here is just too good to pass up when all of Raducanu’s matches have stayed under this number.

Emma Raducanu to hit more aces than Leylah Fernandez (-130)

Fernandez has hit more aces than Raducanu throughout the U.S. Open (21 to 19), but keep in mind that the Canadian has played far more tennis. Raducanu’s ace rate is actually quite higher given how few sets/games she has played. It should also be noted that the Brit has been aced just nine times through six main-draw matches. Fernandez got aced eight times by Svitolina alone, and Svitolina isn’t exactly a massive server. This is a three-way money line bet in which a draw is also an option. And at +550 it has to be said that a draw has good value. In a matchup between two women who are not big servers, each one finishing with two aces or maybe three apiece would not be a +550 kind of surprise.

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