It’s safe to say that Novak Djokovic’s relationship with the U.S. Open has become tumultuous. The three-time champion has not won it since 2018, and since that time he has retired from a fourth-round match (2019), been defaulted for hitting a lineswoman with a ball in frustration (2020), been crushed by Daniil Medvedev in the final with a chance to capture the calendar-year Grand Slam (2021) and been unable to enter the United States due to being unvaccinated (2022).
That’s right; there will be no Djokovic in New York this year. With the Serb sidelined, world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev is the betting favorite and Rafael Nadal comes in as the second choice. It is quite simply one of the most wide-open slams in recent years – perhaps the most wide-open slam since the era of Nadal, Djokovic and Roger Federer dominance began.
With the festivities getting started on Monday, it’s time to break down the odds to win the U.S. Open men’s singles title and deliver my best bets.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Daniil Medvedev +220
Rafael Nadal +410
Carlos Alcaraz +550
Nick Kyrgios +850
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1400
Jannik Sinner +1700
Taylor Fritz +2100
Matteo Berrettini +2900
Felix Auger-Aliassime +2900
Borna Coric +3100
Cameron Norrie +3600
Hubert Hurkacz +4500
Casper Ruud +5500
Pablo Carreno Busta +5500
Andrey Rublev +6000
There is one – and only one – piece of bad news for Nadal: he has played just one match since Wimbledon (and lost it) because of an abdominal injury. But that’s where the bad news ends. Keep in mind that after defeating Nadal in Cincinnati last week, Borna Coric went on to win the title. In fact, Nadal was the only player to even take a set off the Croat. The four-time U.S. Open champ is certainly well rested, which should more than compensate for any rust. At this point in Nadal’s career (36 years old), rest is more important than having matches under his belt. Moreover, the No. 2 seed has an extremely favorable draw. He is in the weakest quarter and the weakest half of the bracket, so the door is open for him to secure his third major title of 2022 (23rd overall). For the non-math majors out there, +410 has an implied probably of less than 20%. Newsflash: Rafael Nadal has a much better than 20% chance to win this tennis tournament. Strike while the iron is hot!
I have been on the Jannik Sinner bandwagon a couple of times this season and I’m not getting off it now. The 21-year-old is 38-11 in 2022 and up to No. 13 in the rankings. If not for numerous injuries, he would already be inside the top 10. He is healthy now, and his peak form was on display during a run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals – where he came within a set of ousting Djokovic, the eventual winner. Sinner is in the same half of the draw as Nadal, but he otherwise has a favorable path. At +1700, the Italian has enticing value.
For the first time since the 2004 Australian Open (Andy Roddick), someone other than Nadal, Djokovic, Federer and Andy Murray is the No. 1 seed at a Grand Slam. That is one example of just how up for grabs this title is for a whole host of contenders. Does that mean the host nation could be in line for its first men’s singles slam winner since the 2003 U.S. Open (also Roddick)? It’s finally a realistic possibility. Fritz has been awesome this season, with a title at the Indian Wells Masters and a quarterfinal performance at Wimbledon (lost to Nadal in five sets). Up to 12th in the world, Fritz generally does his best work on hard courts. He has a good draw until at least the quarterfinals and Medvedev could lose to either Nick Kyrgios or Felix Auger-Aliassime before a Fritz-Medvedev showdown would happen in the semis. This is setting up well for the 24-year-old American.
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