Caleb Wilfinger
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With the first College Football Playoff rankings released on Tuesday, the 2022 season is nearing the home stretch. Last weekend’s slate was another entertaining one, and we should have more great action in store for Week 10.
Week 9 was a nice bounce-back card for me, as I cashed all three of my plays for the third time this season. That brings my best bets record to 16-8-1 over the last 8 weeks. Let’s keep the momentum going this week!
This week’s action kicked off on Tuesday and will go deep into Saturday night. While this week’s lines have been on the move since Sunday, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 10 of the college football season.
We’ve got NCAAF picks for all the big games in Week 10!
Tennessee Volunteers first-half team total over 13.5 vs Georgia Bulldogs (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
If this were earlier in the week, I would’ve recommended a play on Tennessee at anything +10 or better. Unfortunately, that number is long gone, but I still like backing the Volunteers using this team total angle instead. It goes without saying that Tennessee’s offense is excellent and the Vols are top 10 in nearly every statistical category for a reason. Not only do they score points in bunches, but they tend to do it early in games. To this point, Tennessee is averaging a whopping 30.5 points in first halves this season. Even only factoring in games against Power 5 opponents, that number still sits at 25 points. This offense hasn’t been stopped by the likes of Kentucky, LSU or Alabama, so why would that change this week?
I’m expecting the road underdogs to throw a punch on their opening drive, much like last year’s meeting between these teams. However, the main difference this season is that we have a better Tennessee team and a lesser Georgia secondary. The Bulldogs are still 22nd in EPA per pass defense and 7th in success rate, but they can be had by the likes of Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt. Even against this Georgia defense, I fully expect Hendon Hooker to keep rolling en route to at least 17 first-half points for the Vols. The best part? We only need 2 touchdowns to clear this number, so an underwhelming half by Tennessee’s standards still likely cashes this ticket.
Be sure to check out our full Tennessee vs Georgia predictions
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3 over NC State Wolfpack (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
I happily faded Wake Forest against Louisville last week in what was a great spot for the Cardinals in that matchup. However, that won’t be the case here. Despite the fact that NC State survived an upset bid last week, the Wolfpack still need to overcome a double-digit deficit in the second half to beat lowly Virginia Tech at home. This season, the NC State offense has struggled to string together scoring drives consistently, which hurt the Wolfpack against Clemson and Florida State previously. Recently, it’s become clear that since an injury sidelined quarterback Devin Leary, this NC State offense is now even worse than it was with him at the controls.
The Wolfpack had just 74 rushing yards against the Hokies last week, and their passing metrics aren’t much better, ranking 81st in the nation in EPA per pass and 92nd in EPA on offense. Now, this team will have to contend with a Wake Forest side that should get a ton of positive regression its way. The Demon Deacons were likely going to lose to Louisville anyway, but they also had 6 third-quarter turnovers in the loss. Sam Hartman and company can’t be expected to do that again, and even if they do make a few mistakes, NC State’s offense isn’t anywhere near as potent as Louisville’s with a healthy Malik Cunningham. Hartman saw success against this defense in 2021 and I expect that to continue on Saturday.
Be sure to check out our full Wake Forest vs NC State predictions
LSU Tigers +13.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Crimson Tide will face their 4th true road game of the season this week, and the previous two didn’t go as planned. Back in Week 2, they escaped with a win over Texas, a game they could’ve easily lost if Quinn Ewers played the full 60 minutes. Alabama’s loss to Tennessee last month is well documented, but the Crimson Tide also had trouble with Arkansas in Fayetteville, needing a pair of late 4th-quarter touchdowns to cover the spread in that contest. This is a team that has a wealth of talent on both sides of the ball, but seems to be missing something.
On the other hand, the opposite can be said of their opponent, as LSU seems to be peaking at the right time. Following an embarrassing loss to Tennessee on October 8, the Tigers responded by posting dominant victories over Ole Miss and Florida. Now coming off a bye week, Brian Kelly’s defense should have enough schemed up to slow down Bryce Young and company. LSU can be beaten on the ground, but the Tide are average at running the football, ranking 54th in rushing success rate. The Tigers are 8th in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, which bodes well against an Alabama defense that is 67th in opponent rushing success rate. If we get the good version of Jayden Daniels at quarterback, LSU should keep this within two touchdowns.
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