Wimbledon men’s singles final preview and best bets: Expect fireworks in Djokovic vs Kyrgios

Nick Kyrgios chomps on a towel at the 2019 U.S. Open.
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

Tennis · 1 month ago

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

I got Novak Djokovic at -125 outright before the tournament started, making it my 3-star best bet. Yes, even being favored over the entire field there was still value on the top seed. Now he is -500 at DraftKings, so it’s safe to say that the -125 play was a solid investment. Now, will Djokovic finish the job or will Nick Kyrgios pull off an upset? That is the matchup for Sunday’s championship match, and it’s a mouthwatering one even though the Serb is priced as a massive favorite.

Below are my best bets for Day 14.

Nick Kyrgios +5 games over Novak Djokovic (-125)

Novak Djokovic has been nowhere near at his best throughout this tournament. If not for the Russian ban and a favorable draw in the much weaker top section, he probably wouldn’t be in the final. Alas, he did enough – at times just barely – to get past Miomir Kecmanovic, Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie. The top seed has dropped at least a set in 4 of his 6 matches, including 2 against Sinner. Meanwhile, grass has always been Nick Kyrgios’ best surface. He reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2015 and now finds himself in a Grand Slam final for the first time. The 27-year-old is never short on confidence and he will have plenty of it heading into this match – not only because of the surface. Kyrgios is 2-0 lifetime against Djokovic and has never even lost a set to him. This is a winnable match for the underdog, and he should cover at the very least.

Over 38.5 games (-120)

Overs are generally the way to go in grass-court matches because it’s the most difficult surface on which to break serve, and the markets rarely adjust enough. This case is certainly no exception. A 4-setter would likely sail over this number and I can’t see either player finishing the job in straight sets. This is a competitive matchup, contrary to what the money line odds suggest. Djokovic has played a total of 13 sets in his last 3 contests and Kyrgios has played a pair of 5-setters among his 5 victories on his way to the championship match. The Aussie has been broken only 3 times in his last 7 sets, which suggests that even if Djokovic wins he will have to battle through some long sets and a long match in general.

Nick Kyrgios over 1.5 service breaks (-110)

Although Kyrgios is known as a big server and not much of a baseline player, his return of serve is actually quite good. He takes the ball early and uses a very short backswing, which are great tactics for returning on grass. The world #40 has broken serve 19 times in 5 matches, an average of almost 4 per outing. Djokovic is tougher to break than Kyrgios’ previous opponents, but at least half of his current average can be expected. After all, the 35-year-old has been far from invincible on serve during this fortnight. He has been broken 7 times in his last 2 matches. Moreover, Djokovic has put more than 66% of his first serves in play just once in 6 matches. By comparison, Kyrgios is serving at 70% for the tournament. There are going to be opportunities for the underdog, and he should be able to capitalize.

The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis Predictions and Picks from top events including the Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.