Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/25/26

Denver is 4-2, but the record is doing a lot of the talking. Every one of the Broncos’ wins has come by seven points or fewer, including last Thursday’s 17-14 overtime win over Seattle, when Denver managed just 168 total yards and won on a 53-yard Will Lutz field goal in overtime after being outscored 11-0 in the second half. It was the first time since John Elway’s first start in 1983 that the Broncos won a game with fewer than 175 yards. Bo Nix went 17-of-27 for 107 yards and has completed just 60.3% of his passes for 1,049 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and Denver ranks 31st in the league in yards per play (4.4).

That’s not an offense that should be laying more than a field goal on the road. Sean Payton has already taken over play-calling, but the Broncos have topped 23 points only once in six games. Arizona, meanwhile, just stole an 18-16 win against the Los Angeles Rams as Chad Ryland kicked six field goals, including a 43-yarder as time expired. Jacoby Brissett threw for 218 yards, and the Cardinals’ defense held the Rams to 286 yards after allowing 148 points over the previous four games.

There are real risks here. Arizona is 0-2 ATS at home this season, Denver is coming off 10 days of rest, and rookie RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle) missed Wednesday’s practice after sitting out the Rams game. But the Broncos’ margin for error is razor-thin with this offense, and Denver’s own secondary is banged up with Pat Surtain II (ankle) limited and Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) not practicing. I’ll take the points in what should be another one-score game.

Broncos vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable down to +3.5 (-110).

Denver’s games have been a goldmine for Under bettors. The Under is 5-1 in Broncos games this season, and their 6 games have averaged just 39.8 total points. The defense is the reason. Denver has forced 10 turnovers, including 3 against Seattle, and it sacked Sam Darnold 5 times last week. The Broncos rank 30th in the league in explosive-play rate on offense, and Arizona ranks 32nd, so neither side is built to hit big plays that blow up a total.

The Cardinals’ offense also stalled in its first game without Love. Arizona didn’t score a touchdown against the Rams and relied on six field goals to win, and the backfield could be thin again Sunday. Brissett has been efficient but conservative, and he’ll be facing a Denver defense that ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play. Both teams will likely lean on short passes and the ground game, which keeps the clock moving. Denver has also been held to 17 points or fewer in two of its last three games.

The one concern is Arizona’s defense, which allowed 36, 36 and 45 points over a three-week stretch before the Rams game. But Denver’s offense hasn’t been capable of exploiting weak defenses, and I expect another grind-it-out game in the low 40s at most.

Broncos vs Cardinals prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable down to 42.5.