Arizona shocked Los Angeles as 13.5-point road underdogs in Week 6 despite not scoring a touchdown in an 18-16 victory at SoFi Stadium. All three of Arizona’s wins have come on the road, as LA seeks revenge here in its second straight road game. The Rams held off the Commanders last Sunday, 20-13, to pick up their third consecutive victory. Los Angeles lost star WR Puka Nacua on their final offensive play to a knee injury that will sideline him for nearly a month.
Since allowing 37 points to Buffalo, the Rams have stepped up defensively, allowing an average of 15.2 ppg in the last four games. The Cardinals will send out QB Carson Beck to make his first NFL start in place of the injured Gardner Minshew. Arizona is one of five teams winless at home this season, losing three games by 24, 24, and 14 points.
The Rams are favored for a 10th straight game, as they and Seattle are the only two teams to be favorites in every game this season. Since blowing a 16-0 lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver in Week 3, the Rams are 3-0 on the road, covering each time. L.A. is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups with Arizona, including five double-digit victories.
The Cardinals have done a solid job slowing down the run, ranking seventh in defensive EPA/Rush. However, Arizona ranks dead last in defensive EPA/Pass, while allowing an average of 242.6 passing yards per game at home. This is the most points the Rams are laying on the road this season, but it’s hard to ignore Beck’s debut, Arizona’s home struggles, and L.A. looking to avenge that last-second loss to Arizona last month.
Rams vs Cardinals prediction: Rams -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.
The first matchup between these teams saw a grand total of 34 points and only two touchdowns. Both TDs came from the Rams, but Arizona’s six field goals were enough for the biggest upset of the NFL season as 13.5-point underdogs. Each of the last three meetings in Glendale have finished over the total, although there are several factors that could prevent this streak from continuing.
Arizona is on its third QB this season, starting rookie Carson Beck, while the Rams are down their top two WRs with both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams sidelined due to injury. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in aDOT (Average Depth of Target), as the Rams rank 17th, while the Cardinals sit 26th. Rams veteran Matthew Stafford ranks 12th in EPA/dropback among QBs making at least eight starts this season.
It’s been hit or miss for the Arizona defense, allowing 17 points or less three times, but also yielding at least 30 points in six games. At home, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 35.3 ppg against the Seahawks, Lions, and Broncos. Stafford has been intercepted in three straight games, while the Cardinals have picked off only three passes in nine outings.
The Cardinals are without star WR Michael Wilson, who is sidelined with a neck injury. Arizona rushed for 120 yards in the first meeting with L.A., which included an early 31-yard run from RB Bam Knight. Removing that rush and the Cardinals averaged less than three yards a carry in that win.
The Rams have combined for 34 or fewer points in five of nine games, as this total drops from 51.5 in LA to 39.5 on Sunday in Arizona. Although it’s a low total, the Rams lost their explosion with Nacua sidelined and the Cardinals insert a quarterback making his first NFL start.
Rams vs Cardinals prediction: Under 39.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5 (-110).
