Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/18/26

Both of these teams are coming off losses last week in significantly different fashions. The Bears were blown out at Green Bay, 31-7, marking the second time they have been held to single-digits this season. Chicago hopes to get QB Caleb Williams this Sunday, who missed the last three games with a hamstring injury. The Falcons won consecutive games against the Packers and Saints after QB Michael Penix, Jr. returned from injury. However, Penix and the Falcons fell short in overtime to the Ravens, 30-23, to drop to 2-3.

Atlanta's offense was putrid in the first two games with Cooper Rush under center, scoring a total of 16 points against Pittsburgh and Carolina. The Falcons still rank 27th in EPA/Pass, but are third in EPA/Rush thanks to Bijan Robinson averaging 116.0 rushing yards per game. Robinson should be able to take advantage against a Chicago run defense sitting 27th in EPA/Rush.

The Bears are 2-2 against the spread as a favorite, while splitting their two games as a road favorite against the Panthers and Packers. The Falcons fell to 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Obviously the Bears will look like a different team with Williams, scoring 59 points in the opener at Carolina. Chicago is 7-3 in their last 10 road games with Williams starting, and two of the losses came to playoff teams last season. This looks a solid get-right spot for the Bears this week, and I'm taking Chicago to bounce back.

Bears vs Falcons prediction: Bears -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3 (-110).

Chicago easily drilled the over in the season-opening rout of Carolina, but the Bears have finished under the total in each of the past four games. It's no coincidence that QB Caleb Williams was sidelined with a hamstring injury  in three of those contests, and the Bears averaged 19.0 points per game in that span.

Williams looks to return on Sunday against a Falcons’ squad that is averaging 34.3 points in three games since Michael Penix, Jr. was inserted at quarterback. Atlanta cashed the over in all three games with Penix under center, but this is the highest total for the Falcons this season.

The Falcons should be able to run all over the Bears behind RB Bijan Robinson, but Atlanta has thrown only four TD passes this season. Chicago hasn't seen a total in the 50s, as the opener against Carolina closed at 47.5 and the next week against Minnesota slipped to 46.5 due to subpar weather.

Atlanta ranks 30th in PROE (pass rate over expected) and 31st in aDOT (average depth of target). However, the Falcons are eighth in defensive EPA/Pass, which includes the 216-yard second half from Green Bay QB Jordan Love in Atlanta's 35-14 Week 3 blowout at Lambeau Field.

Chicago's pass defense has been hit or miss this season, allowing 360+ passing yards to Love and Carolina's Bryce Young, but also giving up less than 160 passing yards in three games. It's set up to showcase both Williams and Penix, but each is not 100% heading into this matchup, so we'll stay under the high total.

Bears vs Falcons prediction: Under 50.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -120.