Neither the Falcons nor the Bengals play at an uptempo pace. If anything, both the Bengals and the Falcons have been two of the slowest offenses in the league when playing away from home, so if the over on a total in the low 50s is going to hit, we’re going to need a high explosive play rate in this one – on a surface that is not known to be fast. There is certainly explosivity in both of these offenses, but on this track, after international travel with no rest? I’m not so sure.
Since the start of last season, international games have been relatively low scoring. Only two of the six thus far in 2026 have gone over the total, and while four of the seven went over last year, none of those games had a total in the 50s, and only one of those contests would have gone over this number – oddly it was the Falcons-Colts overtime game.
The Bengals could easily do the heavy lifting, score 35 points and guide this game over the total with a garbage-time touchdown from either team, but I’m not confident in that happening in an unfamiliar, international setting.
Bengals vs Falcons prediction: Under 53.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to 52.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons will meet internationally at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain this Sunday – the home of Real Madrid. Tune into this one at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network.
The question is, can the Falcons slow down this Cincinnati passing attack? Sitting 14th in EPA per pass and 21st in pass success allowed (SumerSports), the Falcons have been okay to slightly below average against the pass, but against top-tier offenses, they’ve fallen short – see games against the Panthers and Bears. I don’t see this unit being able to slow down Joe Burrow for four quarters, especially with the way Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played lately. Also, credit where credit is due – the Bengals offensive line has improved tremendously this year.
The other issue is the Atlanta quarterback situation. While Michael Penix Jr. is an upgrade over what the Falcons deployed earlier this year in his absence, he’s a bit of a loose cannon. He only has five interceptions, but he has the fourth-most turnover-worthy plays in the league, and that’s with only six games played. His turnover-worthy play rate is the highest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Of course, six of those came in the conditions last week, but he had seven in the three games prior. For comparison, Burrow has seven all season in seven games, and three came last week on his three interceptions – which is an outlier performance historically. He only has three other games in which he had three turnover-worthy plays since the start of the 2023 season.
Furthermore, the Bengals have a top-10 sack rate and TFL rate despite sitting 15th in pressure rate and dead last in blitz rate. Newly-acquired Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe have done wonders for this defensive front, showing an ability to organically pressure the opposing quarterback. That could be disastrous for Atlanta, as Penix is dead last in completion percentage and turnover-worthy play rate under pressure (PFF) – and that’s while seeing one of the lowest pressure rates in the league (30th in total pressured dropbacks).
Atlanta has a bellcow running back in Bijan Robinson that can keep the Falcons in any game, or help them control any game like they did against the Packers and Saints. However, teams know that and have been able to successfully limit him over the last few weeks. The Bengals aren’t anything to write home about defensively against the run, but they’re sixth in rush success allowed and eighth in stuffed runs (SumerSports), while they’re solid from a tackling perspective. There’s enough here to really like the flat -3 with the Bengals; that’s the way I’m going in this one.
Bengals vs Falcons prediction: Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.
