The Chiefs snapped a two-game slide in last Sunday’s 35-12 home rout of the Jets, improving to 4-0 at Arrowhead Stadium. However, Kansas City hits the road this week after losing its past two away games to Seattle and Denver.
The Falcons have a quick turnaround following a 34-17 setback to the Bengals in Spain, as Atlanta scored seven points in the final three quarters. Since grabbing consecutive road wins at Green Bay and New Orleans, the Falcons have dropped four of their last five games. Somehow, Atlanta managed to hand San Francisco its only loss of the season in this stretch, but the Falcons have lost each game by seven or more points.
Both teams rank in the top five in EPA/Rush, with the Chiefs sitting second and the Falcons placing fifth. This matchup also features the top two running backs in the NFL as Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson has rushed for 880 yards, followed by Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III at 872 yards.
The aDOT (Average Depth of Target) for these clubs sit at the bottom of the league, with the Falcons at 30th and the Chiefs 32nd. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an elbow injury suffered in the win over the Jets, as he has dished out multiple TD passes in three of four road games.
The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, while the Chiefs own a 1-9 ATS mark in their past 10 road contests. Kansas City’s last five wins came against teams with losing records, as the Chiefs have taken care of business against these types of clubs.
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction: Chiefs -3.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4 (-110).
Atlanta is riding a three-game Under streak, although two of those finished under by one point. The Falcons have allowed at least 30 points in three of the past five games, including 34 points against Cincinnati last Sunday. Atlanta’s defensive success rate ranks 21st, while its defensive EPA/Rush is 20th, facing one of the top running backs in Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III. The Falcons also showcase the league’s top rusher in Bijan Robinson, but he squares off against the fifth-ranked EPA/Rush. Atlanta has been outgained in each of the past five games, while allowing 47 explosive plays.
The Chiefs are in the midst of a 3-1 Under run, while allowing 20 or fewer points three times. Kansas City gave up 13 points through three quarters at Denver two weeks ago before yielding 15 points in the fourth quarter of a 28-24 defeat.
The defense rebounded last week against the Jets, holding New York to four field goals, marking the second time the Chiefs didn’t give up a touchdown. Only one quarterback has thrown for more than 260 yards against Kansas City this season, which was Raiders QB Kirk Cousins with 365 yards.
Falcons QB Michael Penix hasn’t topped the 225-yard passing mark in four straight games. Three of those defenses rank in the Top-15 in fewest passing yards allowed, while the Chiefs sit eighth in that category. The Chiefs averaged 29.5 ppg in their first four games, but that number dropped to 21.0 ppg in the past four outings.
Chiefs vs Falcons prediction: Under 45 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.5 (-110).
