The Ravens were dealt a tremendous blow in Week 8. Fighting hard to avenge a two-game losing streak and to put themselves back in contention in a talented AFC, Lamar Jackson suffered a thumb injury on his very first throw. It was his first game back since Week 4, a moment the Baltimore faithful have been waiting for as the perennial Super Bowl contenders hoped to finally make it to the big dance. Those hopes were all but shattered when Tyler Huntley followed with an injury of his own, hurting his toe in the first half. Jackson is officially on the injured reserve and could miss the remainder of the season. Pundits are already alleging that Week 8 might’ve been his last performance as a Raven.
It’s no secret that an NFL franchise needs a competent quarterback to win games. Thrust into action in the second quarter last Sunday, undrafted rookie QB Joe Fagnano did not look the part. Of course, he was in a terribly difficult position, on the road against a true elite. Few QBs would have succeeded. But aside from a few crisp throws, the UConn graduate went just 10-21 for 91 yards, gaining just 4.3 yards per pass, was sacked three times and threw a horrid interception. One day after the 36-10 loss at Buffalo, the Ravens signed UFL QB Austin Reed to their practice squad for more depth at the position.
Tyler Huntley is doubtful to play on Thursday, which means either Fagnano or Reed will suit up under center. That doesn’t bode well for Baltimore supporters.
The Ravens’ Week 8 matchup against the Bills was one we watched more closely than others. It was very impressive watching Baltimore's defense limit Josh Allen in the first half. Unsurprisingly, the Bills took advantage of their offensive shortcomings in the final two quarters, as Fagnano and company simply couldn’t maintain drives long enough to keep their defense off the field (just 22:23 time of possession). The game ended in a 36-10 blowout.
Week 9’s Thursday Night Football presents a very difficult matchup for Baltimore, even if they were healthier. Baltimore has always relied on their rushing attack as the engine to their production, as they should with Derrick Henry in the backfield. Henry's superpowers only go so far without a competent thrower by his side, though. The Jaguars’ defense has been one of the best units against the run all season, permitting a league-best 3.4 yards per rush. They are far more vulnerable against good quarterbacks (7.6 yards per pass allowed, 26th), but we have little faith that Baltimore’s options can provide a real threat.
Jacksonville is coming off a statement win over the Colts. Even though Indianapolis was banged up and in the process of selling their best players, decimating a division foe is never easy. It was the most lopsided win of Week 8 (42-7), a contest that was 28-0 Jags by the end of the first half. Following their bye week, it’s exactly what we’ve come to expect from a top-tier program under Liam Coen.
The Jaguars’ upstart running back Bhayshul Tuten (4.5 yards per carry) is a little banged up, but not enough to suggest he won’t play Thursday. The Ravens’ defense may keep the Jags at bay early, but their crisis at the quarterback position suggests we’ll see many three-and-outs. When that happens, even the best defenses– which the Ravens are not (25.4 ppg allowed, 22nd) – eventually capitulate. Besides home-field advantage, the Ravens have no edges in this contest. Or, in other words, the Jaguars could score 10 points and it’s feasible they still cover this spread.
Jaguars vs Ravens prediction: Jaguars -9.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 10 (-110).
The number of the TNF total is markedly low, and that has little to do with the visiting team. With a third backup quarterback likely under center, the hometown Ravens will need to create a masterful game plan to see any production against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Entering 2026 it was assumed that Jacksonville’s offense would pick up right where it left off in 2025; an ascending unit that held myriad top-five marks in the second half of last season. Eight weeks in and Jacksonville owns many of the same traits, including top-five ranks in explosive plays, third-down conversion rate, and points per game (28), along with top-10 ranks in yards per game (350) and red-zone touchdown percentage (third).
The Jaguars’ defense is a welcome surprise for fans of “Duval,” a group that’s top-10 in nearly every category that matters. While they aren’t as impressive against the pass in macro stats (bottom-five in opponent completion percentage and pass-yards per game, for example), defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile clearly coaches for the moments that matter. Jacksonville is top-five in opponent red zone touchdown percentage, explosive plays, and points per game (15.9, second overall). They’re also top-10 in opponent third-down conversion rate (35%).
Jesse Minter’s defense was extremely impressive early against Buffalo, limiting Josh Allen and his teammates to just 16 points in the first half. That didn’t last, and it’s what we fear about trusting his defense in Week 9. All year, Baltimore's resistance has been vulnerable in the moments that matter, which is the exact opposite of their enemy’s identity. The Ravens rank in the bottom 10 in opponent points, explosive plays, fourth-down conversions, and red-zone touchdown percentage (67.86%).
This isn't the easiest spot for Jacksonville, on a short week on the road, and we're positive a prideful Baltimore defense will fight hard early. We also think the dam will eventually collapse. We'd rather take an early under, like the first quarter or first half; full game we can only look in the same direction.
Jaguars vs Ravens prediction: Under 40.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -120.
