NFL schedule makers are typically fantastic at creating big matchups for primetime television. This isn’t one of those instances. Needless to say, we’re all surprised at how the first half of the season unfolded for each of these franchises.
At this point, it’s impossible to trust the LA Chargers. Week after week, hopeful fans of the winless Bolts eagerly wait to see some change in their performance. It hasn’t happened. Justin Herbert has thrown an interception in every start this season, totaling 11 (30th). The lowest total their defense permitted was 22 points against the Chiefs a few weeks ago. Overall, the opposition has averaged 27.4 points per game, certainly missing the presence of Jesse Minter, last year’s esteemed defensive coordinator. Their rushing attack is perhaps their most formidable feature; LAC is 18th in yards per carry (4.1) and 16th in yards per game (114.5). Still, it hasn’t been effective enough to change any outcomes.
Their biggest issue is along both fronts. The Chargers rank 25th in sack percentage and permit plenty of rushing yards (122 per game). Herbert has been sacked an astounding 31 times this season, with all but two defenses earning 3+ in each contest. The duo of Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel has not proven a thing; if anything, they profile as two disparate minds unable to produce a positive result.
The Baltimore Ravens are less at fault for their downfall. Losing Lamar Jackson to the injured reserve and now Tyler Huntley, who is out for the season, is a brutal situation. To that we say - have no fear, Jacoby Brissett is here! The journeyman QB who started in eight games for the Cardinals this year was traded to Baltimore late last week. He’s in line to start on Monday night. And while Brissett isn’t necessarily a top option in the league, he’s considerably more capable than the undrafted and inexperienced Joe Fagnano, who Baltimore was forced to start last week. Brissett has thrown for 1,719 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.
We like the addition of Brissett to boost the defense, too. Minter’s defense hasn’t been as consistent as he’d want them to be this season (allowing 26.5 points per game, 25th overall), but they’ve been compromised by an offense that can’t stay on the field. Brissett brings a legitimate arm and takes attention away from Derrick Henry, who is certainly due for a breakout game. The Ravens are still a top-five team on the ground (4.7 yards per carry, 13.8 per game).
The market also reacted to the addition of Brissett, pushing the Ravens to a 4.5-point favorite after the line opened as a pick-em. At home against a program that has yet to cover the spread a single time this season, how can we not take Baltimore?
Chargers vs Ravens prediction: Ravens -4.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5 (-110).
The total in this contest is completely reasonable considering how ineffective both offenses have been. The visitors are, not shockingly, the least productive outfit in the entire league, averaging just 15.2 points per game. Also not surprising is their 32nd rank in points per play, which is a way to measure the explosiveness of an offense.
It just hasn't been there for Justin Herbert and his surrounding talent. One receiver, Ladd McConkey, stood out to analysts as a guy who could have a big year under the Mike McDaniel scheme. But like his colleagues, McConkey has been a victim of an aimless offensive line, spotty play-calling and battling his own injuries this season. He is questionable for Monday night.
If there's one area where each offense is similar, it's their playing styles. Baltimore ranks third and LAC ranks 12th in rush play percentage, both obviously leaning on the ground attacks to sustain drives. Reflecting on the inefficiency of Mike McDaniel’s play-calling and the constant discomfort from Herbert in the pocket suggests that won't end anytime soon for the Chargers. The same can be said for the Ravens, who will be integrating another quarterback into their plan this week.
Regardless of their struggles, both offenses are in the top half of the NFL in time of possession, another mark that suggests this will be a slow-moving, time-sucking battle. Neither defense is trustworthy on paper, but we still project more edges for each unit when they're on the field. The lookahead forecast looks lovely, but this game profiles as rather gross and we expect that to show through the total.
Chargers vs Ravens prediction: Under 38.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38 (-110).
