Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/25/26

Only one team in the NFC South owns a winning record through six weeks, and that is the defending division champion Panthers. Carolina sits atop the division at 3-2, coming off a 25-14 victory against a banged-up Philadelphia squad last Sunday. RB Chuba Hubbard recorded his second consecutive 100+ yard rushing performance, putting up 120 yards and a TD against the Eagles.

Tampa Bay fell apart in the fourth quarter in its 26-19 overtime home loss to Pittsburgh, blowing a 16-3 lead through three quarters. The Bucs were on their way to their second consecutive win with rookie QB Jalon Daniels at the helm, but Tampa Bay fell to 1-5 this season and 1-14 against the spread in the past 15 games.

Last season, these teams split a pair of games decided by less than three points apiece in the final three weeks. Carolina held off Tampa Bay at home, 23-20, but the Bucs picked up revenge in Week 18 with a 16-14 victory in a driving rainstorm. However, the Panthers won the division title by owning the tiebreaker despite an 8-9 record.

The Bucs are ranked 31st in EPA/Pass and 27th in offensive success rate, but their low EPA/Pass had a lot to do with QB Baker Mayfield (-27.3 EPA). This is actually Carolina’s first opportunity as a home favorite this season, splitting with the Bears and Lions as an underdog. This marks only the third time Carolina is a home favorite since the start of 2024, losing in both opportunities. Carolina covered both times as a dog against Tampa Bay in 2025, but the public will be all over the Panthers here.

Despite Tampa Bay’s struggles to cover numbers since last season, let’s grab the points with this Bucs’ team that has shown some confidence with Daniels. They may not win, but the Bucs can keep this within a field goal.

Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction: Bucs +3.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

Tampa Bay’s offense has seen its struggles this season, but defensively, the numbers have been extremely strong. The Bucs rank sixth in both EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush, while sitting seventh in defensive success rate. Tampa Bay was on its way to a fourth straight under against Pittsburgh on a low 37.5 total, leading the Steelers 16-3 heading to the fourth quarter. However, Pittsburgh scored 16 points to go in front before Tampa Bay kicked a 53-yard field goal to send the game to overtime and kill all chances at an under. 

Carolina has cashed the under in all three road games, but has easily hit the over in both home contests. The Panthers allowed 59 points to Chicago in the season opener and 26 to Detroit in Week 4. Two of Carolina’s wins have come against backup QBs, shutting down Atlanta’s Cooper Rush in Week 2 and Philadelphia’s Tanner McKee last Sunday.

Both matchups last season finished under the total, 23-20 in Charlotte on a 44.5 total and 16-14 in Tampa on a 42.5 total in the rain. Tampa Bay’s two road totals closed at 50.5 at Cincinnati and 49.5 at Dallas, and this will be the Bucs’ lowest total away from Raymond James Stadium. Although Tampa Bay’s defense has been stout this season, both these teams can reach the 20s, while neither team has missed a field goal in 25 tries.

Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5.