New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Tomorrow

This is an interesting matchup on several fronts. Firstly, both teams are 4-2 and on a high after impressive wins on Sunday. A rare meeting that usually happens once every four years, the Patriots and Bears are similar in that only one side of their football team has been consistent. The difference is that they thrive on opposite sides of the football.

The Patriots’ defense has been their more stellar unit, a talented group that’s held opponents to just 18.8 points and 300.8 yards per game, both top-six marks. Like the man who coached them and thrived under pressure, the Patriots’ defense is top-11 on third down, in preventing explosive plays, and in the red zone. They will need all that and more on Thursday Night Football.

Drake Maye would also like a word. After a horrendous start to his season, Maye has answered with three straight impressive outings, all resulting in wins. His opponents during that three-win tear – the Bills, Raiders and Jets – aren’t exactly the top of the defensive heap, but they’re formidable enough that we were impressed by Maye. He threw for 878 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception in that span. With Maye’s legs adding to their total every week (he’s run for 138 yards), the Patriots’ rushing attack ranks better than it is. Lately they’ve also improved, running for 143 or more in their past three wins.

Of course, offenses can do pretty much whatever they want on the Chicago Bears. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen hasn’t earned his paycheck just yet, since the Bears own some of the worst marks in the NFL through five games (like permitting 8.4 yards per pass; only Arizona is worse). Surprisingly, they rank top-10 in opponent points and yards, but that’s misleading. In Weeks 2-4 the Bears battled in a weird game that produced only 12 points against the Vikings and lackluster offenses in the Jets and Eagles.

This game will be won or lost when Chicago has the football. In Caleb Williams’ first game back since Week 2, the Bears’ offense looked right back in prime form last Sunday, steamrolling an above-average Falcons’ defense in Atlanta. The market is suggesting Chicago will realize plenty of success on Thursday, since they are three-point favorites and the total is at 50.5. That means sportsbooks project a 26 to 27-point performance from Caleb and company at home. We’re not sure it’ll be that easy.

Another issue for Chicago is New England’s offense looks its best against bad opponents. Versus bottom-15 or weaker defenses, Maye has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Bears are also less than adequate against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry (24th). The Patriots have the better defense, by far, and they will also have opportunities offensively. There are concerns across their offensive line, where one of their starters seems to incur an injury every week, but they've managed that well over the last three weeks (two sacks allowed).

If New England’s defense was average, this is a spot where Chicago could blow them out. We think the Pats will make enough stops to keep this close or win.

Patriots vs Bears prediction: Patriots +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

The first thing to note is that Thursday night in Chicago will be beautiful: 60° with a very light wind. In the notorious Windy City, that's called perfect football weather.

In the write-up on the spread, we noted that while the Patriots’ defense holds its own and then some, while the Bears’ defense has been inconsistent at best. New England’s offense has thrived against similar groups. The Raiders, an aggressive but flawed defense, couldn’t slow down the Patriots at any point. Even in a tough spot at Buffalo, the Maye-led offense dropped 405 yards and gained 26 first downs on an average Bills resistance. 

The Bears are indeed a similar outfit, with one notable difference. Through six games, the Bears rank top-two in sack rate (9.44% of dropbacks). Considering New England’s vulnerable offensive line, we wonder if they’ll be able to unsettle Maye.

On paper, Maye should be in a good position against a group that profiles like the others he’s dominated. But Maye’s kryptonite is pressure, a weakness that we all witnessed in the first three weeks. He threw six interceptions in that span and simply couldn’t make proper reads. He was sacked seven times in those contests.

A total around 50 means the markets expect both sides to score on roughly half their possessions. Field goals included, NFL teams average 10-12 possessions to put up points. It may be perfect football weather, but that’s asking a lot of any two teams.

Ben Johnson’s offense has looked special at times this season, but it hasn’t been consistent. The Patriots’ defense has also looked special at times this season. It also hasn’t been consistent. Unfamiliar teams that both have edges on defense, we project a more flawed and lower-scoring affair.

Patriots vs Bears prediction: Under 50.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.