In what was easily the most impressive statement of Week 8, the Bears didn't just beat the reigning Super Bowl champions, they dominated them on their home turf. Surrounded by the “12th man,” the lauded Seattle defense had very few answers for Caleb Williams and his offense, a group that totaled 22 first downs and 363 yards while scoring in every quarter. When the Seahawks looked like they might be building towards a comeback, Ben Johnson's offense always had an immediate response.
Even more exciting for fans of the new-look Bears was the arrival of Jeffery Simmons, one of the NFL’s best interior defensive lineman. Traded for earlier in the week, Simmons made an instant impact on the field, seen constantly pressuring and harassing Sam Darnold from Seattle’s very first snap. In his first game under coordinator Dennis Allen, Simmons earned six total tackles, three solo, two for a loss, one sack, one QB hit, and one pass deflected. Needless to say, the big man was everywhere.
His presence cleared the way for other Chicago defenders, like Montez Sweat (three QB hits) and Devin Bush (one sack, one tackle for a loss, one QB hit). Throughout the game, Simmons and his fellow teammates largely made the home-team offense look incompetent; Seattle accrued just 81 rushing yards and 171 passing yards.
Leading up to the Monday Night Football clash, the spread was rising on Seattle, for good reason. Few bettors, including yours truly, thought that a young and still relatively newly assembled Bears roster would simply waltz into the Pacific Northwest and dethrone the champs, but that’s exactly what happened. It felt like a changing of the guard, the proverbial “new sheriff in town,” where even the Bears’ special teams made a huge impact (a Jason Myers field goal, which would have brought the game to within one score, was blocked late in the fourth quarter).
On a short week but no doubt riding a high, Chicago returns home to host a resurgent Tampa Bay Bucs’ squad, now off two straight wins. Thrusting themselves right back in the NFC South conversation, Tampa Bay won an ugly battle in South Florida last Sunday. The rain and muck largely tempered any offense on either side, except for the home team’s rushing attack. The Bucs ran for a ridiculous 324 total yards, earning 15 first downs on the ground. Even more startling, Baker Mayfield failed to complete a single pass in the inclement weather. Thanks to his running backs and defense, he didn't need to. Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr. threw four sloppy interceptions to wreck one drive after another for the visiting Falcons, while a top-tier Tampa run defense kept Bijan Robinson to only 81 yards on 19 carries.
While we were surprised and somewhat impressed by Tampa’s win, there were many unpredictable elements, most notably a deluge of rain and wind, that contributed to their victory. Tampa’s rushing attack is very legitimate (5.1 yards per carry, 2nd overall), but the Bears are a top-5 rush defense, too (only 86.8 rushing yards allowed per game). They’re also a more complete offense, at home, and we’re bullish that the newly added Jeffrey Simmons will only catalyze their continued success. We’re also not inclined nor incentivized to step in front of the Bears in their current form at under a touchdown. In fact, we could easily make a case that Chicago should be -7 to -7.5, especially in the Windy City. This is a deal.
Buccaneers vs Bears prediction: Bears -6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-110).
It's interesting to evaluate the way the market posts totals for the Chicago Bears. In Week 1, markets had Chicago at Carolina at 46.5, a terribly sheepish number considering the matchup resulted in a 96-point game. The following week, Chicago again received a 46.5, this time at home versus Minnesota, but mucky conditions and a mean Vikings’ defense forced a low-scoring affair with just 12 total points. Weeks 3-5 were without Caleb Williams, so we can hardly rely on those listed numbers, but when Caleb returned, we’ve exclusively seen higher totals in three games back (51.5 at Atlanta, 50.5 vs. New England, 46.5 at Seattle). Of course that checks out – Williams is already one of the premier QBs in the league.
If we include the Bucs’ prolific rushing attack as a true offensive edge, it’s surprising to see yet another 46.5 posted for this Week 9 contest. After all, Tampa is first overall in rush yards per game (168.6), a.k.a. they own an edge against any defense, so theoretically they should be able to put up points. Few would argue that Chicago’s offense will slow down, either.
But the market is likely posting a 47.5, which is just below the key numbers of 48, and 50, due to a few important factors. Firstly, both defenses excel against the run, preventing the opposition from getting close to 90 yards per game. Now that they can post up Jeffrey Simmons in the middle of their front-seven, that will only get better in Chicago. In addition, both sides choose smash-mouth, downhill football. That is, Tampa is first in run-play rate (53.52%) and Chicago is fourth (48.7%). This combination of attributes means that bettors are expecting formidable run-defense and stubborn play-callers who will continue to try and keep the ball on the ground anyway. In other words, both outfits will attempt to burn time off the clock, which is yet another area where they each excel (Tampa is third overall in time of possession, Chicago is first).
The fact that this opened at 48.5 and the market has already moved it down tells us everything we need to know. This profiles as a battle in the trenches.
Bucs vs Bears prediction: Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46,5 (-110).
