The Titans head into Cincinnati hoping to keep pace with a Bengals offense that averages 27.2 points per game. More realistically, Tennessee may find itself closer to the 20.3 points that Cincinnati's defense allows on average. The Bengals will be looking to outperform Tennessee's defensive averages as well, but if the Titans stay true to form, Cincinnati could find itself working hard to reach the upper-20s. Tennessee's low-scoring offense, combined with a defense that has held every opponent between 20 and 27 points aside from the Giants, who managed just 12, are two major factors pointing toward a lower-scoring game and a total that stays Under.
The Titans sit at 1-6 and are far from a high-scoring team, while Cincinnati's defense isn't known for giving up many points. Tennessee's defense, however, has quietly been one of the more consistent units in keeping opponents in check. Through seven games, not a single opponent has scored more than 27 points against the Titans. In fact, six of those seven opponents finished between 20 and 27 points, with the lone outlier being the Giants, who managed just 12. That said, if there's a team capable of breaking that trend, it's Cincinnati. Joe Burrow and company can stretch the field as well as anyone, and their deep receiving corps is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. The problem for the Bengals is that Tennessee specializes in limiting explosive passing plays and defends the deep ball better than the league average, a matchup that could make sustaining long scoring drives more difficult than usual.
I see Tennessee putting up somewhere in the 16-19 point range, while Cincinnati gets held near the Titans' season high allowed of 27 points, a number I believe they're likely to finish around. At first glance, 47 points doesn't seem especially high when you consider names like Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase lining up on the same offense. However, Tennessee is likely to contribute only 14-18 points of its own, and if the Bengals are held slightly below expectations, the path to an Under becomes much clearer. It may be close, with the final total landing somewhere in the 44-47 point range, but I don't believe it will be enough to push this game Over 47. As a result, I believe we do exactly what we're looking to do here and cash the Under.
Bengals vs Titans prediction: Under 47 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 46.5 (-120).
