The Cleveland Browns surprisingly secured two winning streaks before their first losing streak of the season, which they currently find themselves on right now after losing 23-22 in overtime at New Orleans – failing to convert a go-ahead two-point conversion – on the heels of their 27-6 loss at Pittsburgh. The Browns have played three road games in a row, as well as four of their last five, so they will be happy to return home – where they are 3-0 SU and ATS.
Meanwhile, this will be Houston’s second consecutive road game after they played out in LA last week, though they were idle in Week 8 and are pretty centrally located in the country, so I guess that helps alleviate some of the travel difficulties. Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games, with their only loss coming in overtime at home as a favorite against the Giants.
Houston isn’t immune to mistakes or offensive lapses, but for my money, and candidly, as a Browns fan, this Texans team is much better than the Browns. Cleveland has promising young talent, and you can see the direction under Todd Monken, but it’s an incomplete product. They’re going against a fresh and physical team in Houston that is starting to finally get healthy in the skill position groups, including the return of WR Tank Dell, and CJ Stroud is playing out of his mind this year. For reference, Stroud ranks seventh or better in yards, touchdowns, big-time throws, interceptions and turnover-worthy plays (PFF). His ADOT ranks third, and that will likely only increase with the return of Dell.
The somewhat cold and windy conditions forecasted Sunday in Cleveland are a slight concern, especially with the way the wind swirls in that stadium, but Houston has such an advantage in the quarterback department here. Plus, the Browns haven’t had their bye yet. As I alluded to before, they’ve been on the road four out of the last five weeks, and only two of their nine games were decided by more than five points. That takes a toll. Given the current number, oddsmakers are strongly indicating this should be a Texans win and cover, and I will bet it as such.
Texans vs Browns prediction: Houston Texans -4.5 (-115) at the time of publishing. Playable to -6 (-115).
In Browns games, totals in this range can be tricky. The defense can be good at times, but it’s nowhere near what it was with Myles Garrett and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah roaming around. Plus, I would also argue Cleveland’s schedule has been somewhat favorable for its defense, making it look a bit better on paper than it actually is. On the other side, the offense has great young skill players, but offensive line play is extremely mediocre and the quarterback play can be so bad at times that fans wish it was mediocre. Still, this number is low enough to warrant interest in an over, especially with how turnover-prone the Browns can be. Deshaun Watson has 13 turnover-worthy plays, which include bad passes or fumbles – lost or recovered.
Then you have Houston, which is another team that likely gives total bettors nightmares. The Texans are billed as an elite defense under DeMeco Ryans, but it hasn’t been up to snuff this year, sitting 18th in scoring and 20th in EPA per play, though they are eighth in success rate allowed (SumerSports). On the other side, the Texans seem to be rounding into an offensive force, averaging more than 26 points per game and tallying at least 30 points in three of their last five games, as well as averaging 23.5 in the other two.
This is a case where I lean over on any number lower than 41, while I lean under on any number 41 or greater. Given the current market at 40.5, I’ll lean over, but I prefer just laying it with Houston.
Texans vs Browns prediction: Over 40.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115.
