Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 11/01/26

The Cowboys kept their season alive with a huge 38-21 rout of the banged-up Eagles on Monday to improve to 3-4 in the subpar NFC East. Dallas is entering a five-game stretch with four opponents owning losing records, starting with 2-5 Arizona on Sunday. The Cardinals couldn’t capitalize on an 18-16 upset of the Rams as 13.5-point underdogs in Week 6, as Arizona fell to Denver at home 30-16 last Sunday. Dallas has been tremendous offensively, ranking fifth in EPA/Rush and seventh in EPA/Pass. However, the Cowboys’ defense has struggled to say the least, sitting 28th in success rate, 29th in EPA/Rush, and 30th in EPA/Pass. The question going into not only Sunday’s matchup but the rest of the season for Dallas is whether it posts enough offense to overcome its poor defense?

Since shocking the Chargers in the season opener, the Cardinals are 1-5 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread in the last six games. This series has been one-sided over the years, but in Arizona’s favor. The Cards have won the past four matchups since 2020, including a 27-17 triumph at Dallas last November as 3.5-point underdogs. Arizona is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog this season, compared to an 0-3 ATS mark as a home dog. The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their past nine opportunities as a favorite since last December, including a 1-3 ATS ledger at home. For some reason, Arizona has played better on the road and this is a classic letdown spot for Dallas off its Monday night blowout.

Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction: Cardinals +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6.5 (-110).

These teams have played plenty of high-scoring games this season, as Arizona is 4-3 to the over, while Dallas is 5-2 to the over through seven games. The Cowboys got their offense together on Monday following 29 combined points against the Packers and Buccaneers, as Dallas dropped 38 points in a blowout win over Philadelphia. The Cowboys have actually improved defensively over the last three games, allowing an average of 22.6 PPG after giving up 30+ points in the previous two contests against Baltimore and Houston. Arizona has hit the over in four of the past five outings after consecutive unders to start the season. The Cards have done a solid job slowing down the run, ranking ninth in EPA/Rush. Arizona has allowed at least 75 rushing yards to three running backs this season, with two of them being Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs and San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey. 

Last season’s total closed at 53.5 in Arizona’s 27-17 victory at AT&T Stadium. Dallas QB Dak Prescott threw one TD in that loss, coming in the fourth quarter trailing 27-10. Prescott ranks ninth in EPA/dropback, but 19th in yards per attempt (6.8). Arizona QB Jacoby Brissett is tied for last in yards per attempt (5.7) with Tennessee’s Cam Ward. The Cardinals are 22nd in EPA/Pass, as the Cowboys faced the 26th and 30th teams in EPA/Pass over the last three weeks. No matter how much Dallas’ defense has struggled, it’s tough to think Arizona can put up a bunch of points in this one. This game may end up in the high 40’s and remain under the total.

Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction: Under 54.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5 (-110).