A rivalry that brings back plenty of playoff memories from the 1990s renews itself on Sunday from AT&T Stadium. San Francisco is tied with Buffalo for the best record in the NFL at 7-1 after last week’s 38-17 home rout of Las Vegas. The 49ers put up a season-high in points, including an interception return for a score. San Francisco is laying points on the road for the second time this season after suffering its first loss at Atlanta three weeks ago.
The Cowboys held off the Colts last week, 27-23, as Dallas seeks consecutive victories for the first time in 2026. Dallas fell to 1-4 ATS in the last five games, but the Cowboys were listed as favorites each time and are flipped to an underdog here.
These NFC squads didn’t meet last season, but San Francisco captured four straight matchups from 2022 through 2024, including a pair of playoff victories. The last time the Niners traveled to Dallas for a regular-season meeting, the Cowboys outlasted San Francisco, 41-33, back in 2020. All those points were scored with Nick Mullens and Andy Dalton starting at quarterback that day.
The Dallas defense ranks 30th in EPA/Rush and 29th in EPA/Pass, facing a San Francisco offense that is tops in EPA/Pass and third in EPA/Rush. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS since the start of 2025 in the underdog role, including three outright wins at home. Sunday marks the first time the Cowboys are a home underdog this season. The public will be all over San Francisco, but this is a good spot to grab Dallas in the profitable underdog role.
49ers vs Cowboys prediction: Cowboys +4 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to +3.5 (-110).
For the second straight week, San Francisco faces a team ranked in the bottom three of the league in yards allowed per game. Last Sunday, the Niners put up 414 yards on the Raiders in their highest-scoring output of the season with 38 points. San Francisco has topped the 30-point mark in three home games, while averaging 26.6 ppg in three contests away from Levi’s Stadium.
The Cowboys are sixth in the NFL in scoring average (27.3 ppg), but allow the seventh-most points per game (26.2 ppg). In the last five games, Dallas yielded 24 points or fewer four times, with the lone outlier coming in a 33-30 overtime loss to Arizona. In that defeat, the Cardinals scored 20 points in the fourth quarter before kicking the walk-off field goal in overtime.
This will be the highest total that Dallas has seen this season after going 3-2 to the over in the five games with totals of 50 or higher. In the three overs, the Cowboys and their opponents combined for more than 57 points. The 49ers are 2-1 to the under in three games away from Santa Clara, while allowing 29 points in each of the past two against the Seahawks and Falcons.
In the last five games, the Cowboys have faced Daniel Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Tanner McKee, Jordan Love and Jalon Daniels. Besides Love throwing for 276 yards, the other four QBs threw for 211 yards or fewer. San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is averaging 250.5 yards per game against teams ranking in the bottom half of passing yards allowed per game. Both teams can score and Dallas can’t slow any decent offense down, so let’s look at the over even on this high total.
49ers vs Cowboys prediction: Over 55.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 56.5 (-110).
