Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 11/01/26

Kansas City heads back west for a second straight week following its worst offensive performance of the season. The Chiefs barely broke 200 yards of offense in a 20-3 defeat at Seattle last Sunday night, suffering their first loss of the season.

The Broncos return home following a 30-16 triumph at Arizona, extending their winning streak to three games. Denver can pass Kansas City for first place in the AFC West with a victory, looking to avenge a 31-10 blowout loss at Arrowhead Stadium in their season opener. The Broncos were held to 176 yards and nine first downs, as the Chiefs picked up revenge for a pair of losses to Denver last season.

The Chiefs rank first in the NFL in EPA/Rush, looking to get their ground game back on track after star RB Kenneth Walker was held to 36 yards in his return to Seattle. Denver’s rushing defense sits 26th in EPA/Rush, while ranking fourth in EPA/Pass. Walker rushed for 173 yards against the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver has allowed only one other running back to post more than 75 rushing yards (Rams RB Kyren Williams).

The Broncos are 3-0 at home this season, including pulling off a pair of late comeback wins over the Jaguars and Rams. The Chiefs have been excellent defensively, ranking fourth in success rate, while the Broncos are 29th in the league in offensive success rate (38.3%). Look for Kansas City to rebound here and pull off the sweep of Denver.

Chiefs vs Broncos prediction: Chiefs -1.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -110.

Both of these AFC West rivals have been solid Under squads this season, combining for a 9-4 mark. The Chiefs are off consecutive unders against the Chargers and Seahawks, while allowing 20 points or less in four of six games. The Broncos’ defense has stepped up the last three games, giving up no more than 17 points during this 3-0 stretch.

Last Sunday, Denver and Arizona barely finished over the total of 44.5 in the Broncos’ 30-16 road victory. It marked the second time this season the Broncos reached the 30-point mark, but are averaging 16.8 points in the other five games. These are the bottom two teams in the NFL in aDOT (Average depth of target), so don’t expect many big plays even though the Broncos posted a pair of 50+ yard touchdowns at Arizona.

The Chiefs shut down the Broncos in the season opener, 31-10, marking the seventh consecutive under in the series since 2023. In the past seven meetings, Kansas City and Denver have not combined for more than 41 points, while reaching the 40-point mark only twice. This total has dropped two points since the Week 1 matchup in Kansas City, and this is a four-point dip from last season’s meeting in Denver, won by the Broncos, 22-19

Denver QB Bo Nix posted his second-highest passing output of the season at Arizona with 222 yards, including a 52-yard TD pass on a swing pass to RB R.J. Harvey out of the backfield. History says this will be a low-scoring game and there’s no reason to think it will change here on Sunday.

Chiefs vs Broncos prediction: Under 40.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40 (-110).