The New England Patriots and Detroit Lions will take their talents to Munich, Germany to square off in an intriguing Week 10 contest on Sunday. Both of these teams are good, but the Patriots -- and specifically Drake Maye -- have been all over the place in 2026. They lost to Jacksonville by 29 points, won four of their next five and then got humiliated by Green Bay 45-27 at home this past weekend. It’s hard to have any faith in head coach Mike Vrabel's squad after what it put on tape against the Packers, with some disastrous developments on both sides of the ball. The home side watched Jordan Love complete 23 of 29 passes for 372 yards and three TDs. Green Bay even rushed for 129 yards...and its ground game is utterly anemic. Maye threw three picks and really wasn't productive in any capacity prior to late-game garbage time. That is part of the reason why my Patriots vs Lions prediction is for Detroit to win and cover.
It is a much different story in Week 9 for Detroit, which extended its winning streak to four games with a 19-9 defeat of Miami. This current surge by the Lions also features victories over the Packers and Vikings. Vrabel might be able to out-coach Detroit's Dan Campbell during a traditional work week, but an unusual travel schedule across the pond probably removes that factor from the equation. What's more important is that Campbell has considerably superior personnel at his disposal, especially on offense. I can't see Maye being able to keep up with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction: Lions -2.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.
Both teams are capable of putting up points, but I'm not sure Sunday's game will be long enough so to speak to exceed a sizable 51.5 quota. After getting gashed by Green Bay last week, New England will want to do everything in its power to keep Detroit's offense off the field for as long as possible. That means the Pats' own offense should try to control the clock by running the football. Of course, that probably won't result in many points of their own. After all, both Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) are expected to miss Sunday's contest. As such, my Patriots vs Lions prediction is Under 51.5.
For Detroit, low-scoring affairs have been the norm of late. Its three most recent results are as follows: 20-17 win over Green Bay, 19-15 win over Minnesota and 19-9 win over Miami. Aidan Hutchinson and the defense are cooking, but the offense has been underwhelming. Adding insult to injury (or vice versa), center Cade Mays is dealing with an ankle issue that sidelined him from last Sunday's game. Both defenses are fantastic against the run, and more of than not that is a recipe that works for keeping opposing offenses in check. The under is 3-0 Detroit's last three games and 3-0 in the last three meetings between these two teams.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction: Under 51.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 49.
