Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/18/26

Let’s start out with arguably the most important bit of information – Micah Parsons will not be playing in this contest. After allegedly “circling” this game, the All-Pro is still in recovery after his ACL tear last season. 

Of course, that doesn’t mean he won’t have an impact. The apparent rift between Jerry Jones and Micah Parsons is well-known at this point, likely one of the key elements to why he was traded last season. It’s also not significant enough to suggest one team will be particularly more motivated than the other because of it.

Without Parsons the Packers’ defense has presented a mixed bag. Statistically they rank highly in some categories, like top five in opponent yards per play (4.7) and top 10 in opponent yards per pass (6.4). They’re also one of the worst defenses in opponent third-down conversion (44.29%, 25th) and red-zone touchdown success (81.25%, 31st). 

On the bright side, last Sunday Jordan Love and the Packers’ offense looked in peak form. Against a weak Chicago defense (that secondary looked lost), Christian Watson and Matthew Golden dominated, gaining 143 and 123 yards, respectively. Love threw for 368 yards on 10.8 yards per pass, reminiscent of his prolific showings in 2023 (Thanksgiving at Detroit comes to mind).

They won ‘t be too challenged by the Cowboys. Dallas’ defense has capitulated plenty and they have the data points to prove it – 25th in opponent yards and 31st in opponent points per play. As usual, they’re also capable of producing on any defense, although last week’s collapse against the Bucs, who beat them straight up as 9.5-point underdogs, left much to be desired even offensively (just 10 points in the first half).

Dallas hopes to get back star linebacker Demarvion Overshown, who hasn’t suited up since their Week 1 matchup against the Giants. Joey Porter Jr. is practicing, too, which is a good sign. The problem is we can’t shed the memory of how sharp the Packers looked in Week 5. The chemistry between Love and his two big wide receivers was startling to watch. The Cowboys don’t have the personnel to adequately defend that all game, while Green Bay has a noteworthy home-field advantage and a formidable pass defense through five weeks. And we can’t say we’re thrilled by Dallas’ coaching this season. Even without Parsons, I like the Pack to pull away.

Cowboys vs Packers prediction: Packers -1.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5 (-110).

It makes perfect sense why this total is so high. After the Packers’ best offensive showing of the season, they will face an equally vulnerable defense on Sunday Night Football. The most concerning part for Dallas is their pass-defense, a group that’s produced some of the worst marks in the NFL through five weeks (they allow 8.3 yards per pass, good for 30th overall). Meanwhile, Jordan Love and company are feeling themselves and they have the convenience of staying at home after last week’s impressive showing. The addition of Joey Porter Jr., assuming he plays, is needed for a porous Dallas secondary, although we hardly think it’ll be enough to make any real impact. It doesn’t help that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t getting to the quarterback, like at all (3.45% of drop-backs, 29th). 

If there is any side where the spirit of Micah Parsons can make a difference, it’s when the Cowboys have the ball. Parsons anchored a Green Bay defense that was good enough to make it into last year’s playoffs. This year they aren’t nearly as consistent, but home field and plenty of motivation can aid a resistance better than most things.

We’re still not convinced it’ll be enough to slow down this game. The one area where the Cowboys are consistent is their offense, a group led by an advanced aerial attack. Dak Prescott has enjoyed plenty of protection this season (second overall in opponent sack rate) and his receiving duo is as elite as any in the league. Week 5 was by far their worst performance, but in three of their other four games they put up 30 or more. After last Thursday’s embarrassment, we’re bullish they’ll be more explosive and less mistake-prone in Week 6. 

This matchup reminds me a lot of Bills vs Rams last Monday night. Sure, there are some indications that the defense can perhaps perform well in certain areas, but eventually the dam will break. When it does, it will trigger scoring on both sides. Green Bay is set to be a beautiful night for professional football, moderate-wind and in the 50s. Ultimately, there are virtually no factors strong enough to limit either offense.

Cowboys vs Packers prediction: Over 52.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 53.5.