Minnesota’s defense can take them deep in the playoffs, but the offense resembled a team that may draft in the top five. The Vikings acquired old friend QB Kirk Cousins from the Raiders to help jump-start an offense that was held to six points and 178 yards in Monday night’s blowout loss to Buffalo. Cousins finished his short Las Vegas tenure ranking fifth in the NFL with 2,340 passing yards, while looking to rebound off a three-interception performance in a 38-17 defeat to San Francisco.
The Packers rolled past the Patriots, 45-27, as QB Jordan Love torched New England’s defense for 372 passing yards and three touchdowns. Green Bay has won five of six games since a 1-2 start, while covering the spread all six times.
The Packers led the Vikings in the season opener, 22-10, in the third quarter before Minnesota rallied to score 29 unanswered points for a 39-22 victory. Cousins takes over a Vikings offense that ranks 29th in EPA/Pass and 27th in EPA/Rush (Raiders were 10th in EPA/Pass). Minnesota has captured four of the last five matchups with Green Bay, while each of its first three division meetings this season have all been on the road.
The Vikings won at Chicago in Week 2 and lost at Detroit in Week 8. Green Bay is 1-2 inside the NFC North with the only win coming at home against Chicago without QB Caleb Williams. Although Cousins needs to get acclimated to the Vikings, it should be the necessary jolt to get this struggling offensive going against Green Bay.
Vikings vs Packers prediction: Vikings +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -120.
The Week 1 matchup between these NFC North rivals was on its way to an under of 45.5 points as the Packers led the Vikings 22-10 in the third quarter. QB Carson Wentz relieved an injured Kyler Murray and paced Minnesota to four unanswered TDs in a 39-22 win. The Pack outgained the Vikings, 419-239, but turned the ball over twice in the loss.
Green Bay went on a 6-1 under run in the next seven games prior to an easy over of 44.5 in a 45-27 rout of New England. The Packers are riding a 3-0 under run at Lambeau Field since hitting the over in their Week 3 loss to the Falcons.
Minnesota has drilled seven consecutive unders since its Week 1 comeback victory over Green Bay. The Vikings have allowed an average of 13.4 ppg during this stretch and still held the dynamic Buffalo offense to 23 points. Minnesota’s defensive success rate is tops in the NFL, while Green Bay’s offensive success rate actually sits 27th.
Cousins will obviously boost this abysmal Minnesota passing offense, but he faces the fifth-best team in defensive EPA/Pass. In the four games with a total of 42.5 or less, Minnesota has seen combined point totals of 26, 36, 25, and 39 points. Green Bay’s offense completely depends on the pass, as RB Josh Jacobs is sidelined with a hand injury, while Minnesota is #1 in defensive EPA/Pass. This should be a defensive battle and remain under the total.
Vikings vs Packers prediction: Under 42 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5 (-110).
