New York Giants vs Houston Texans Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/25/26

Through six weeks, not many people predicted the Giants would be sitting atop the NFC East. Granted, head coach John Harbaugh’s squad is already on a backup QB with Jaxson Dart sidelined with a knee injury, but the G-Men are the only team above .500 at 3-2-1.

New York dug itself a 34-10 hole against New Orleans before scoring 17 unanswered points and having the ball late before its rally fell short in a 34-27 defeat. Recently acquired QB JJ McCarthy relieved an ineffective Jameis Winston and threw for 243 yards in the loss. The Giants have scored at least 27 points in each of the last three games since getting held to 12 points against Tennessee in Week 3.

New York faces its second AFC South squad this season, visiting a Houston team seeking its third straight win after an 0-4 start. The Texans are known for starting slowly, but following victories over the Titans and Jaguars, Houston sits two games back of Jacksonville in the AFC South.

The Giants rank 22nd defensively in EPA/Pass, while the Texans are 11th in EPA/Pass. Houston QB CJ Stroud is 13th in EPA/dropback, as the Giants have faced five QBs that rank lower than the former Ohio State star in this category.

Houston has yet to win a home game this season, already losing to Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas. However, the Giants are 0-13-1 in their last 14 road games in the underdog role since 2024. This is a big number to lay for a team returning from London, but the Giants can't be trusted on the road, especially with the question marks at the quarterback position.

Giants vs Texans prediction: Texans -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.

Both these teams rank in the bottom third of defensive EPA/Pass through six games. Houston sits 21st, while New York is 22nd in this category. The Giants have given up 24+ points in four of their last five games, with the lone outlier allowing seven points to the league's worst offense, Tennessee.

Houston’s defense was one of the top units in the NFL last season, but the Texans have yielded at least 31 points three times, including in last Sunday's 34-31 walk-off win over the Jaguars in London. In the other three games, the Texans have allowed 20 or fewer points, so it's been a toss-up with what they can give up in any given week.

These squads are two of the best in aDOT (Average depth of target), with the Giants ranking second and Houston sitting third. Basically, they are not afraid to air the ball out, as the Giants are off of consecutive games producing at least 10 explosive plays. The Texans have compiled at least eight explosive plays in five of six games, while putting together an EPA/dropback of +0.20 or higher in three straight contests.

The Giants are riding a three-game over streak, while the Texans have hit the over in two of three home outings. Houston's offense finished 18th last season in yards per game, but the Texans have jumped to 10th in that category in 2026. Meanwhile, Houston's defense has gone from ranking first in the league last season in yards allowed to 15th this season.