These are 2 of the NFL's worst teams, with Miami at 1-7 and Indianapolis at 2-7, but only one of them spent the past week tearing down its roster. The Colts traded LG Quenton Nelson to Seattle, DT DeForest Buckner and WR Keenan Allen to San Francisco and WR Josh Downs to Kansas City at Tuesday's deadline, so Daniel Jones has lost his top 2 receivers. Jones was already struggling, with 6 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and he has thrown a pick in 8 of his 9 games. Indianapolis has lost 5 straight, including a 27-23 home loss to Dallas last week that ended with a Jones interception in the final minute.
Miami has its own quarterback problem, as Malik Willis (groin) is on injured reserve after a 19-9 loss to Detroit. Kyle McCord, a 2025 sixth-round pick who has never thrown a pass in the NFL, will make his first start. That's a real risk, but Miami can lean on Ollie Gordon II, who has 463 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, against a Colts defense that allows 27.7 points per game (30th) and just traded its best defensive lineman. The Colts are also only 1-3 at home.
Indianapolis has won the last 3 meetings, including a 33-8 rout last season, but that was a very different roster. This line has also climbed from Colts -2.5 earlier in the week to -3.5, which gives Miami the hook on the key number of 3. With a gutted Colts offense and a quarterback who keeps giving the ball away, I'll take the points with the Dolphins.
Dolphins vs Colts prediction: Dolphins +3.5 (+100) available at the time of publishing, playable down to +3.
Both offenses have been among the league's worst. Miami ranks 31st in scoring at 15.8 points per game, and it is now turning to a quarterback making his NFL debut. Indianapolis averages 20.4 points per game (24th), ranks 27th in passing at 173.7 yards per game, and just traded away Allen, who led the team with 40 catches, and Downs. Tight end Tyler Warren is now Jones' top option, and the team's leading remaining wide receiver has just 16 catches for 215 yards.
Expect both teams to run the ball. Jonathan Taylor stayed in Indianapolis after the Colts reportedly turned down second-round offers, and he has 656 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Miami will lean on Gordon to protect McCord. The market has already moved hard toward the Under, dropping from 47.5 at open to 38.5, so this isn't the value it was early in the week. The Colts' defense has also been poor, and the Over is 5-4 in their games. But with a first-time starter on one side and a gutted receiving corps on the other, I expect a low-scoring, turnover-filled game in the mid-30s.
Dolphins vs Colts prediction: Under 38.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 38.
