Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 11/01/26

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will meet in an AFC South showdown this weekend, with one team in a much more favorable situation than the other. The Jags might be fresh off two weeks in London and a loss, but they’re also off a bye, meaning they’ll be recharged ahead of a true home game against a divisional foe. The Colts aren’t as fortunate. They haven’t had a bye, and they’re on a grueling stretch of games. This will be their fourth game away from home in five weeks, which includes a trip to London – after which they did not have a bye. They won’t have a week off until Week 11. 

To make matters worse, it seems that everyone on the Colts’ roster is on the trade block. They just traded one of the best offensive linemen in the league, G Quenton Nelson, to Seattle, which could be just the tip of the iceberg with a rebuild seemingly on the horizon. The loss of Nelson cannot be overstated, as it will give the NFL leader in turnover-worthy plays, QB Daniel Jones, even less time to process the field, while it will eliminate some of RB Jonathan Taylor’s running lanes. It’s already a bad enough matchup for Taylor and the Colts rushing offense; not having Nelson makes it even worse. For reference, the Jags lead the league in EPA per rush and rush success rate allowed per SumerSports.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts are pretty banged up in the secondary. Sauce Gardner was limited in practice on Wednesday, so it seems he will return, but how effective will he be? Fellow defensive back Justin Walley is questionable, and one of the depth pieces in Cam Taylor-Britt is on the IR, joining another corner in Cameron Mitchel and edge rusher Arden Key. I can’t imagine this is going to help a defense that is already outside the top 20 in scoring, EPA per play and success rate allowed. 

The Jags have absolutely owned the Colts since the pandemic. In fact, Jacksonville is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against Indianapolis over their last 10 meetings. Given the situational advantages for the Jags, I don’t see that run ending this weekend. Obviously, this line is way over-inflated, but I’d argue it’s for good reason. Listen to this run of games: home loss to Baltimore, road loss at Kansas City in overtime, home win over Houston by two points, win over a third-string quarterback in London, immediately travel to Pittsburgh to play Steelers in a loss, blow a lead to previously-winless Titans at home and finally, a road loss last week at Minnesota in which the Colts were held to just 10 points and 218 yards. It could only be the Jags for me here.

Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable at that number to -115 or to -10 (-105).

The handicap surrounding the total depends on what you think the Colts can do to contribute. I don’t think they’ll be able to do much. The vibe surrounding this organization is just not there, and while that doesn’t have anything to do with football per se, it’s starting to affect the on-field product. One of the best offensive linemen in the game was just traded from Indy to Seattle, which means the offense is likely to be even less competent. It already relied so heavily on RB Jonathan Taylor, as QB Daniel Jones leads the league in turnover-worthy plays (17), has a poor completion percentage and has thrown just one touchdown in the last four games – along with four picks. 

Meanwhile, the Jags’ defense is quite literally the NFL’s best in EPA per rush and rush success rate allowed, surrendering the fewest rush yards and yards per attempt (SumerSports). That means Taylor already had an uphill battle ahead of him before his best blocker was traded and not even considering the rest advantage for Jacksonville. As such, I struggle to see the Colts getting to 17, if even that. 

The Jags have played only two games in Duval County this year, one was a 34-10 win over a Browns team that is now atop the AFC North, while the other was a 35-6 win over a Pats team that was in the Super Bowl last year and has rattled off three wins in their four games since the loss to the Jags. Jacksonville has held all but one opponent at or below 20 points, while the Colts have put up an average of just 17.3 points per game since returning from overseas – producing fewer points in each game as time goes on. 

This total is low enough that the Jags could do a vast majority of the heavy lifting and push this game over the total, but I ultimately expect this matchup will look similar to their aforementioned home games, landing in the low 40s and cashing an under at this number.

Colts vs Jaguars prediction: Under 46.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 45.5 (-110).