Kansas City has dropped back-to-back road games, falling 20-3 in Seattle and 28-24 in Denver, but the Chiefs are 3-0 at Arrowhead Stadium with a 13.3-point average margin of victory. The loss in Denver came down to a goal-line stand in the final seconds, and Patrick Mahomes still finished 30-of-41 for 321 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. New York arrives at 2-6 on a three-game losing streak after falling 38-33 to Las Vegas at MetLife Stadium. Braelon Allen piled up 147 rushing yards and Adonai Mitchell added 142 through the air in that game, yet the defense couldn't get a stop when it needed one.
The Jets' injury report is the reason I'm comfortable laying a big number. WR Garrett Wilson, New York's top receiver with 527 yards on 43 receptions, entered the concussion protocol and did not practice Wednesday. Edge David Bailey, the team leader with 5.5 sacks, missed the Raiders game with a groin injury and was limited. New York's defense has given up 23.5 points per game, has intercepted just one pass all season and has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last six games. Kansas City's defense ranks fourth in scoring at 18.7 points allowed per game. The point differentials tell the same story, with the Chiefs at +36 and the Jets at -18, and Kansas City covered the only other time it was a -9.5 favorite this season, winning 24-10 in Miami.
There are reasons for caution. Kansas City is only 3-4 ATS, Kenneth Walker III has been held to 36 and 69 rushing yards in the two losses and Travis Kelce (ankle) was limited Wednesday while rookie DT Peter Woods (neck) didn't practice. The offensive line is also unsettled, with LG Kingsley Suamataia pulled from the starting lineup at left guard twice in a month. But Geno Smith losing his top target makes it hard to see the Jets keeping pace on the road, and the Chiefs are 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings. I'll back Kansas City to get right at home.
Jets vs Chiefs prediction: Chiefs -9.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10 (-110).
This total opened as low as 45.5 and has been pushed up to 47.5, and I'm happy to fade that move. Kansas City's defense has held four of its seven opponents to 20 points or fewer, and four of the Chiefs' seven games have stayed under the total. New York has averaged 21.3 points with Wilson in the lineup, and they could be down their best receiver on Sunday. Breece Hall (quad) returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday after missing five games, and his return should push New York further toward a ground game that keeps the clock moving.
The Chiefs' offense hasn't been the same force on the ground lately, either. Walker averaged 2.6 yards per carry against Seattle and 3.3 in Denver, and Rashee Rice (hamstring, knee) was limited Wednesday after catching seven passes for 53 yards and a TD in his return. The early forecast in Kansas City calls for clear skies and temperatures around 60 degrees, so weather won't help the under, but a Chiefs team that has struggled to finish drives in its last two games shouldn't be counted on for a high-scoring day.
The Jets' 71-point shootout with Las Vegas last week inflated this number, and their games have still split 4-4 on the total this season. The Under is also 3-2 in the last five meetings between these teams. I expect Kansas City to control this game with its defense and finish in the mid-40s.
Jets vs Chiefs prediction: Under 47.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to 45.5 (-110).
