Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/18/26

The Bills remain out west after holding off the Rams in overtime on Monday Night Football, 37-34. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw for only 210 yards, but rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown to help the Bills improve to 4-1.

The Raiders started a surprising 3-0 following a 3-14 campaign, but have dropped each of their last two games. Las Vegas’ first loss came to rival Kansas City at home, but the Raiders fell flat last Sunday in a 45-17 setback at New England. After allowing 27 points in the first two games, the Silver and Black is giving up an average of 34.0 points per game in the last three outings.

Buffalo’s offense ranks third in offensive success rate, second in EPA/Pass and fifth in EPA/Rush. The Raiders have done a solid job stopping the run, sitting sixth in defensive EPA/Rush. Las Vegas QB Kirk Cousins threw multiple touchdown passes in each of the first four games before getting held to one TD pass at New England. Top draft pick Fernando Mendoza saw his first action in relief of Cousins, throwing for 48 yards against the Patriots in mop-up duty.

The Bills and Raiders last played in 2023, as Buffalo rolled to a 38-10 home victory. This is Buffalo’s first visit to Las Vegas since 2020, when the Bills won 30-23. The Raiders covered their first four games before the New England debacle, while the Bills have cashed in all four of their victories.

It will be a pro-Bills crowd in Las Vegas, but this is a good opportunity for the Raiders to catch Buffalo here off a huge Monday night overtime win over the Rams.

Bills vs Raiders prediction: Raiders +5.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4.5 (-110).

Buffalo has hit the over in four of five games, with the average combined score being 61 points. That includes the 24-16 win over the Chargers in Week 3 when the Bills turned the ball over five times. The Bills topped the 36-point mark three times, while allowing 31 or more points three times, including in Monday’s 37-34 triumph over the Rams.

The Raiders have fallen off defensively the last three weeks, giving up 27 points at New Orleans, 30 points to Kansas City, and 45 points at New England. Buffalo’s defense ranks 30th in the league in success rate and 29th in EPA/Pass. The Bills allowed 454 yards to the Rams on Monday, but yielded 5.8 yards per play as LA ran 21 more plays than Buffalo.

Last Sunday’s loss to New England was nothing short of ugly for Las Vegas, giving up 17 explosive plays and a 56% success rate. Each of the last three games for the Raiders have hit the over, but none of those totals closed higher than 47.5 points.

Sunday’s total sits at 53.5, which is the fourth total of at least 50.5 points for Buffalo this season. In the previous three instances, the Bills went over against the Lions and Rams, but stayed under against the Chargers. The Buffalo defense has intercepted only two passes this season, while Raiders QB Kirk Cousins has been picked off once in the past three games. We know the Bills can put up the points, but this is a high total and this game can end up in the 20s and stay under the total.

Bills vs Raiders prediction: Under 53.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 52.5 (-110).