A rookie quarterback making his first start against the league's best defense would normally have me running toward the under. However, this isn't a typical rookie situation. Fernando Mendoza arrives with championship pedigree, plenty of confidence, and several talented weapons around him, and homefield advantage. While the Seahawks are as tough as they come defensively, I don't think the Raiders need to truly light up the scoreboard to help this total cash, they just need to be a little better than expected.
The magic number here is 41. That's not a lot in today's NFL, especially when we only need to see both teams approach the low or mid-twenties. Seattle's defense ranks among the league's best, but it hasn't been perfect. The Seahawks have allowed opponents to go over the 32-point mark before, and the Raiders only need to find the end zone a couple of times, or once and several field goals, to put the total in a great position. A score in the neighborhood of 23-20, 26-20, or even 24-18 suddenly makes the over look much more attainable.
The Seahawks will likely win this game, but victory and low scoring are not necessarily synonymous . Las Vegas has enough talent to contribute, and Seattle should be able to do its part against a defense that has had its share of issues this season. The way I see it, either team, or both, can reach the low to upper-twenties. That may not sound like much, but it's more than enough to push this game over 40.5 points.
Raiders vs Seahawks prediction: Over 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 41.5 (-115).
Kiss Cousins goodbye, he's heading back to Minnesota, and the No. 1 overall pick, Fernando Mendoza, is taking over. It's a baptism by fire for the rookie, as he'll be facing the stingiest defense in the NFL. The defending champions are coming to town, making this about as difficult a debut as possible. That said, one thing that is apparent about Mendoza is that he's a winner. He led the Hoosiers to a national championship last season when almost nobody believed he or the Hoosiers could do it. I think he'll come out guns blazing and do just enough to keep the Raiders within two field goals.
Mendoza has plenty of weapons around him to make this game interesting. Tre Tucker, Brock Bowers, and Ashton Jeanty are all capable playmakers, and if they find any rhythm, they could put a dent in Seattle's elite defense. It's true that many quarterbacks have tried and failed against a Seahawks unit that ranks among the league leaders in scoring defense, passing defense, and total defense. The Seahawks are tough and disciplined, but they aren't infallible. They allowed the Commanders to score 33 points and the Bears to score 34 in losses earlier this season. While Seattle will likely find a way to win, we only need enough Mendoza magic to keep things relatively close.
The Seahawks will be without their starting quarterback and have other injury concerns, but I still expect them to play with the lead more often than not. Las Vegas' defense is the bigger concern in this matchup. However, the Raiders kept both the Bills and Chiefs within three points despite losing. Seattle has scored 20 points or fewer in each of its last four games, providing a blueprint for how Mendoza can cover this number. I wouldn't be surprised if the Raiders kept it even closer, but give me Las Vegas and the 6.5 points.
Raiders vs Seahawks prediction: Raiders +6.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number to -120.
