DEN vs LAC Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/11/26

Following their loss at San Francisco, the Broncos are now 2-2 SU. The venue has played a role in Denver’s success, as they’re 2-0 at home against the Jaguars and Rams, while they’re 0-2 against the Chiefs and Niners. They will be on the road for the second consecutive week when they travel to Los Angeles to play the Chargers, but the Bolts represent a massive step down in class compared to the opponents the Broncos have played thus far. 

The Chargers aren’t only 0-4 SU; they’re 0-4 ATS, too. That includes their trip to Buffalo, when Los Angeles forced five turnovers yet somehow lost and failed to cover. As you would expect, the Chargers are 31st in EPA per play on the offensive side. They are much more efficient on the defensive side, but the offense doesn’t do the stop-unit any favors by failing to extend drives or take care of the ball, so they have surrendered at least 24 points in every game. That includes 26 to Arizona and Las Vegas in the two opening weeks before the difficulty ramped up against the Bills and Seahawks. The score was close in both of those games, but as I said, the Chargers had five extra possessions in Buffalo and still couldn’t cover as an underdog much less win, and their seven-point loss last week in Seattle looked slightly closer than it was. L.A. trailed by 17 until halfway through the fourth quarter. 

Not only have the Chargers been bad, but they are banged up. Their injured list feels never-ending, and once again, it includes almost the entire offensive line – some of whom have yet to practice this week, while others are out for the season. Derwin James and Ladd McConkey are also battling injuries, so it’s looking bleak all around for the home team. 

Denver has some injuries of their own, but their defensive front is mostly intact. As such, I don’t see how the Chargers' offensive line is going to protect Justin Herbert or give Omarion Hampton room to run. Pat Surtain will be missed, but I’m not sold on Herbert exploiting that loss in the face of Denver’s pressure. 

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction: Broncos -3.5 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.

The under finished 10-6-1 in Chargers games last year, and they are off to the same trend this year, as the under is 3-1 through their first four games. It makes sense; the Chargers haven’t had a good offense seemingly in years, while they have some talented defensive pieces. In fact, the Chargers were 24th in EPA per play last year, and they are even worse this year – sitting last in the NFL (SumerSports). The Chargers' defense is top 12 in EPA per play allowed and success rate, but this unit is on the field too much to be successful for four quarters. 

Broncos unders are 3-1, and each of those unders would have stayed below this number. Those unders also came against much better offenses than the Chargers, namely the Chiefs, Jags, Rams and Niners – all of whom are top 12 in scoring and success rate. This Chargers' offensive line is injured all the way across the board, and they’re potentially starting mostly backups this week. How is Justin Herbert going to have time to operate the offense? 

The Broncos should have enough to win and cover here, mostly through suffocating the Chargers, but I’m not sure they do enough to push this game over the total. While they played much better teams prior to this, Denver’s road offense is still a work-in-progress, and the Chargers still have some dudes on the defensive side. Look for a low-scoring affair in this one.

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers pick: Under 42.5 (-114) available at the time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.