The Detroit Lions bring the NFL's third-highest scoring offense into Miami, and they have all the ingredients needed to put up a number on Sunday. Jared Goff has been operating one of the league's most productive attacks, directing an offense that ranks No. 1 in total yardage and averages 29 points per game. Between Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta, the Lions have dangerous weapons at every level of the field, and Miami's defense has struggled to consistently slow quality offenses. The Dolphins allow 25.9 points per game, a bottom-seven mark in the league, and Detroit looks capable of approaching the mid-30s on its own.
While I don't love Miami to stay within a touchdown, I do think they can contribute enough offense to help this total climb. The Dolphins have remained competitive in recent weeks and have found ways to move the football, even in losses. More importantly, Detroit's defense has not been nearly as dominant as its offense. The Lions rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed and have given opponents opportunities to score throughout the season.
I see Detroit doing the majority of the damage, but Miami should chip in enough points to make this one interesting. Something in the neighborhood of 31-21 or 34-20 gets us comfortably over the total of 50.5. I like the Over.
Lions vs Dolphins prediction: Over 50.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5 (-110).
All of a sudden, the Miami Dolphins are winning games and covering spreads? Well, they may have picked on someone over their size, as the high-powered offense of the Lions is coming to town. Miami’s newfound trend of keeping things close, are likely coming to an end. The problem with laying the points with Detroit is their defense, specifically their secondary, but what the Lions lack in stopping power, they more than make up for on offense. Seven points may seem like a lot in today’s NFL, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Dolphins were down by 9 or 10 by the end of the fourth quarter.
The Dolphins blew a halftime lead last week against the Patriots and ultimately fell 24-19, though they still managed to cover the 6.5-point spread. The week before, they traveled to New Jersey and knocked off the Jets on their own field. To Miami's credit, they've consistently found ways to compete and keep games close against AFC East rivals. The problem is that Detroit is a different beast entirely. Both the Patriots and Jets were able to reach the mid-20s against this Dolphins defense, and now Miami must deal with an offense that ranks third in scoring and #1 in total yards. I simply don't believe Miami has the firepower to respond score-for-score for all four quarters.
Miami ranks 25th in points allowed, surrendering 25.9 per contest. Jared Goff has been firing on all cylinders, and not only does he have Amon-Ra St. Brown at his disposal, but explosive playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams as well. The Dolphins also rank among the league's worst teams in covering tight ends, which could spell trouble against one of the NFL's premier receiving tight ends in Sam LaPorta. There are simply too many matchup concerns for Miami, and the Dolphins have proven they don't always have the answers defensively. I expect Miami to put up a fight and get somewhere near 20, but Detroit should find the end zone at least four times and a likely field goal or two. I'll gladly lay the seven points with the Lions.
Lions vs Dolphins prediction: Lions -7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.5 (-105).
