New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 11/01/26

New England is 4-3 and coming off a mini bye, but this hasn't been the same dominant team that reached the Super Bowl last season. The Patriots' three-game win streak ended with a 30-24 loss in Chicago last Thursday, and their other losses came by three points in Seattle and 29 in Jacksonville. Ball security is the biggest problem. New England is minus-seven in turnover differential, second-worst in the NFL, and Drake Maye has thrown eight interceptions to go with 1,784 yards and 13 touchdowns. "We turn the ball over at a historic rate, and it's ridiculous," Mike Vrabel said after the Bears loss. Miami is 1-5, but it finally broke through with a 28-25 win over the Jets, as Malik Willis threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover and Ollie Gordon II ran for 103 yards and a score.

The market is moving toward Miami. This line opened at Patriots -7.5 on Sunday night, with some consensus openers as high as -8.5, and it's down to -7. I'm on the same side. The Dolphins have found an identity on the ground since De'Von Achane tore his ACL in Week 3, running 41 times for 156 yards against New York, and Gordon has rushed for a touchdown in four straight games. That's a problem for a Patriots defense that gave up 405 yards to Chicago and missed 16 tackles, per PFF. New England's offensive line is also patched together, with guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Mike Onwenu on injured reserve and Maye playing behind his 10th different line combination of the season. RT Morgan Moses (foot) and C Ben Brown (knee) were both limited in Wednesday's practice. Miami is also 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series.

There are risks. Miami lost its first five games by an average of 12.4 points, and Willis has thrown just four touchdown passes all season. The Dolphins' pass rush ranked last in the NFL with four sacks heading into their bye and still has only six in six games, so Maye should have time even behind a banged-up line. That said, Willis (groin) was a full participant Wednesday, there's a strong chance of thunderstorms in Miami Gardens and this Patriots offense keeps giving the ball away. I'll take the full touchdown with the home underdog.

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Miami Dolphins +7 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

The weather is the first reason to like the under. Sunday's forecast for Miami Gardens calls for highs in the mid-80s with an 80% to 88% chance of showers and thunderstorms, according to AccuWeather. That's a tough setup for a Dolphins offense that averaged just 14 points per game before its bye, 31st in the NFL. Miami's 28 points against the Jets were a season high, and it has topped 13 points only twice in six games. The passing game ranked last in the league at 153.6 yards per game through five weeks, and Willis has thrown for 1,057 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions on the season.

Both teams also have reasons to keep the ball on the ground. Miami ran 41 times against New York and closed out the game with a fourth-down QB sneak, and New England averaged 130.7 rushing yards per game before being held to 70 in Chicago. The Patriots' passing attack isn't at full strength either. A.J. Brown (ankle, knee) was limited Wednesday and has just six catches for 75 yards on 16 targets in two games since returning from injured reserve. Miami is dealing with injuries on offense, too, as rookie G Kadyn Proctor is in the concussion protocol, while its top two receivers, WR Malik Washington (knee) and TE Greg Dulcich (ankle), were limited Wednesday.

This total opened at 44.5 at FanDuel and has dropped to 43.5. The Over is 4-3 in Patriots games this season and 4-1 in the last five meetings, but those meetings didn't feature a Miami offense this limited. I expect a game that settles around 40 points.

Patriots vs Dolphins prediction: Under 43.5 (+100) available at the time of publishing, playable down to 42.5.