The Indianapolis Colts can be a sneaky team with the likes of Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren being constant explosive-play and scoring threats, but this is a horrendous spot for the Colts. In the last five weeks, the Colts have gone toe-to-toe with the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a three-point overtime loss, battled to a two-point win against division-rival Houston before travelling to London to play the Commanders, followed immediately by a road game in Pittsburgh before they ran out of gas in the second half last week at home in outright loss to the previously-winless Tennessee Titans – resulting in the firing of their GM Chris Ballard. Now, they have to pack up and go back on the road to play a Minnesota team that is fresh off a bye.
Being fresh off a bye is good for any team at the professional level, but it’s especially beneficial for the Vikings, as they have the most blitz-heavy and efficient defense in the league under DC Brian Flores. In fact, their 66.7% blitz rate is more than 22% higher than the second-most blitz-heavy team in the league per SumerSports, with that second-most blitz-heavy team being the Commanders – who the Colts played three weeks ago. Daniel Jones threw for fewer than 150 yards with a pick and three-turnover worthy plays against that blitz-heavy Washington defense. Against pressure, Jones has seven turnover-worthy plays, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL (PFF).
Flores’ defense has shut opponents down at every level. The Vikings lead the league in EPA per pass and pass success allowed, while they are second in rush success and eighth in EPA per rush allowed (SumerSports). That leaves me questioning Indianapolis’ upside; if Taylor can’t get going, this offense is doomed, and that’s with a healthy Warren – who missed the Week 6 loss to the Titans and wasn’t spotted on the field at the open portion of Wednesday’s practice.
On the other side, the Colts have been poor, sitting 24th or worse in EPA per play and success rate allowed. They’re slightly better against the pass than the run, but the Vikings can win in both areas. Aaron Jones has been very good recently, and Jordan Mason is expected back. A strong rushing performance will eventually open the passing lanes, which is where Justin Jefferson can eat. For reference, only two of Indianapolis’ regular secondary contributors grade above replacement level, and neither rank higher than 85th in PFF coverage grade among qualified safeties and corners in the NFL. That spells mismatch against Jefferson no matter the circumstance; Sauce Gardner’s potential absence due to a mild calf strain sustained last week only enhances the mismatch for the Vikings.
Given the situational and defensive advantages, I love the Vikings in this spot enough to ignore the Friday release of the new Call of Duty – which is notable when Kyler Murray is quarterback of the team you’re betting.
Colts vs Vikings best bet: Minnesota Vikings -6 (-115) available at Fanatics at the time of publishing. Playable to (-125) at that number or up to -6.5 (-120).
