Both these teams enter at 5-3 in this critical interconference matchup at Gillette Stadium. The Packers bounced back from a three-point loss at Detroit to take care of Carolina last Thursday, 27-19. It marked the fifth consecutive cover for Green Bay, while the Pack have won four of five games since a 1-2 start.
The Patriots seek their fourth win in four tries at home, returning to Foxborough following a 24-19 victory at Miami. New England erased a 13-3 deficit with three consecutive TDs, but the Pats couldn’t cover as 6.5-point favorites as the Dolphins scored a long TD with a shade over two minutes left. The last three wins for the Pats have come against teams with losing records, but New England does own victories over a pair of division leaders (Buffalo and Pittsburgh).
Both Green Bay and New England have not run the ball well this season. The Packers are 32nd in EPA/Rush as no running back has amassed more than 149 yards. However, QB Jordan Love enters Week 9 with the most passing yards in the NFL with 2,246, while averaging 279.3 passing yards in the past three games.
The Patriots never suffered through a three-game against-the-spread slide during their Super Bowl run last season, but have not covered in three consecutive outings. WR A.J. Brown and RB TreVeyon Henderson both sat out practice on Wednesday, as Henderson has been held to 31 or fewer rushing yards in three straight games. Packers star pass-rusher Micah Parsons returned to practice following his torn ACL last December, but his status is still unclear for Sunday. Let’s back the Packers here as a road underdog to pick up another cover.
Packers vs Patriots prediction: Packers +3 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -120.
Since Green Bay cashed the over in its opening-week meltdown loss at Minnesota, the Packers have rolled to a 6-1 under streak in the last seven games. The Packers have stepped up defensively in the last five contests, allowing 20 or fewer points each time, while shutting down the likes of Dallas, Detroit, and Chicago (albeit without QB Caleb Williams).
New England began the season with three consecutive unders, but the Pats are currently on a 5-0 over run. Three of those overs came on totals of 45.5 or lower, as most books list this total between 45.5 and 46.5.
The Patriots sit right in the upper-half of the NFL in defensive EPA/Pass (16th), defensive EPA/Rush (13th), and defensive success rate (14th). New England is allowing 9.6 ppg in three home victories, highlighted by giving up just a field goal to AFC North-leading Pittsburgh in Week 2. After its offensive struggles in the first three weeks (36 points), the Pats are averaging 29.6 ppg in the past five games.
The Packers haven’t combined for more than 50 points in any of the last seven outings, but each of the previous four unders were on totals of 47.5 or higher. Both teams rank in the top seven in aDOT (Average Depth of Target), so we’ll see if that translates into big plays. Green Bay has posted seven or fewer explosive plays in three straight games, but is now facing a New England team that has yielded 26 explosive plays in this span. Let’s look at the over here between the Packers and Patriots.
Packers vs Patriots prediction: Over 45.5 (-104) available at time of publishing. Playable to 46.5 (-110).
