New York Jets vs New England Patriots Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/18/26

The Jets are above average defensively, which gives them a strong floor that keeps them within one score of their opponents more often than not. However, I would argue this defense hasn’t been truly tested yet, either. Their best offensive opponent was Detroit, and the Lions put up 31 in that game, while they’ve also played the Titans, a struggling Packers offense, a backup quarterback in Chicago and Deshaun Watson in weather. I believe in their defense relative to the rest of the league, but I question if this is actually a top-five defense – maybe more like top 10 or top 12. All this to say, the Pats should be able reach the mid-to-high 20s, even if they are banged up. 

Cashing a ticket on the total likely comes down to the Jets offense one way or another, and I like the Jets to reach the low 20s themselves here. Their run game is strong even without Breece Hall, and the Pats haven’t been as stout against opposing rushers as you'd think. In fact, the Pats rank middle-of-the-pack to below-average in yards per rush and EPA per rush allowed, so I like Braelon Allen to have a big game on the ground here. The Jets are thin in the pass-catcher department, but the Pats are thin in the secondary, so there’s no advantage one way or another there. Isaiah Williams has been a solid downfield threat to complement Garrett Wilson, while Omar Cooper Jr.’s potential return would be a huge boost to the passing game -- as would AJ Brown's return for the Pats. I like points in Foxborough, especially below a key number of 44.

Jets vs Patriots pick: Over 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44 (-110). 

The Jets are pretty banged up, and so are the Patriots, but the issue for New England is they have to consider their Thursday Night Football matchup in Chicago next week when evaluating their injuries. As such, I could see some of the questionable pieces like OL Will Campbell sitting for this one. If they end up playing, how effective will they really be? Make sure you stay tuned to the injury report.

The Pats have been on a roll lately, but this is a pretty big number for a divisional game against a somewhat capable team in the Jets. In fact, New York has actually been pretty good defensively, allowing only 4.6 yards per play, fewer than 300 yards and only 19.2 points per contest – good for second, fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively. They’re also sixth in EPA per play allowed according to SumerSports. Contextually, it makes sense given their schedule, but they should have enough on this side of the ball to keep things close against a banged-up Pats team. 

On the other side of the ball, Geno Smith has yet to throw an interception, while Braelon Allen has filled in admirably for Breece Hall. There might not be any drop-off at all from Hall to Allen, which means the Jets should be able to find some room to run against a Pats defense that is 20th in EPA per rush allowed. Despite how good the Pats have looked the last two weeks, it’s Jets or pass for me here. 

Jets vs Patriots prediction: Jets +7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7 (-120).