Year after year, the NFC South is seemingly the weirdest division in the NFL, and it has been no different this year. The entire division has three wins each, with the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints sitting tied at the top at 3-5 ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons at 3-6. When the Panthers and Saints meet in New Orleans this Sunday, the Panthers hope to improve to 2-1 in the division, while the Saints hope to improve to 1-1.
The Saints have had a ton of home games recently, five of their last six contests to be exact, which is a huge benefit for the hosts. However, their last four games have been pretty physical, and their most recent game went late into overtime against the Browns. The Saints won, but they gave up an overtime touchdown and were fortunate Cleveland didn’t convert the two-point attempt for the win. Prior to that game, the Saints were 0-4 SU and ATS at home.
Being a home favorite has been a death sentence in NFC South divisional games for a few years. Since the start of 2024, home favorites in a battle of NFC South teams are just 4-12 ATS, including just 1-9 ATS in their last 10. That lone recent cover was the Bucs in that monsoon game against the indoor-playing Falcons. Oftentimes, the road underdog ends up winning outright.
The Panthers have lost three straight and failed to cover in each of those contests. Are we at the bottom of the market for the defending division champs? Don’t look now, but LB Jaelan Phillips, CB Will Lee III, CB Mike Jackson, DT Lee Hunter, WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathan Brooks, OL Torricelli Simpkins, OL Damien Lewis and OL Brady Christensen all practiced in full on Wednesday, which means the Panthers could be much, much healthier going into this game than they have been in weeks.
Despite winning the division last year, the Panthers dropped both games against the Saints and are just 1-5 SU against New Orleans in their last six meetings. That adds a bit of a motivational edge, on top of the three-game losing streak they’re currently on. Expecting a healthier Panthers roster this week, I’m all over Carolina. I’m fully expecting them to win this game, but if you’re giving me two-plus points, I’m going to gladly take them.
Panthers vs Saints best bet: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to PK (-110).
When it comes to pace of play, it doesn’t get any faster than the Panthers and Saints. Carolina is the fastest team in the league per TeamRankings, running a play every 26.6 seconds. New Orleans is right behind them at 27.1. These offenses don’t come without flaws, but both average around 23 points per game, and the defenses haven’t exactly been elite. In fact, both stop-units are bottom-six in scoring and bottom-12 in EPA per play allowed. The Saints are worse off in terms of success rate, carrying the second-worst mark in the league (SumerSports).
Overs are 3-2 in Carolina’s last five games, but the two unders were by just two points combined. The Panthers are a step up in class offensively from most of the Saints’ recent opponents, which should help buoy the scoring here. On the other side, Carolina expects to be healthier in the secondary, but I’m not sure that will completely shut down Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson. I like points here.
Panthers vs Saints prediction: Over 48.5 (-110) at the time of publishing. Playable to 50.
