Entering the season, the expectations were high on the Saints and low on the Browns. However, Cleveland travels to the Superdome on Sunday owning a 5-2 record, while New Orleans sits at the bottom of the NFC South at 2-5.
The Saints return from the bye week following their 16-10 defeat to the Steelers in France, marking their lowest-scoring game of the season. The Browns also look to bounce back after a loss to the Steelers, falling at Pittsburgh 27-6 on Sunday. Cleveland tries to avoid consecutive defeats for the first time this season, while coming off its fourth performance of 13 or fewer points.
The Saints rank 31st in the NFL in defensive success rate and last in defensive EPA/Rush. The good news is the Browns sit 27th in EPA/Rush, while posting a 31% rush success in Sunday’s setback at Pittsburgh. New Orleans seeks its first home win of 2026, losing the last two at the Superdome by double digits to Atlanta and Minnesota. The Saints have allowed 90 points in the two games as a favorite, while not gaining more than 320 yards in each of the past four games. Cleveland’s defense ranks seventh in EPA/Pass, as the Browns have limited four straight opponents to less than 200 net passing yards.
In the last 14 games in the underdog role, the Browns have covered nine times. The Browns are 3-0 this season after scoring fewer than 13 points, as they are worth a strong look here to keep the Saints winless at home.
Browns vs Saints prediction: Browns +2.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -110.
Nothing has stuck out from a totals perspective with these teams, as New Orleans is 4-3 to the over, while Cleveland has split its eight games on the over/under.
The Saints have yielded the fourth-most points per game (27.7), as that number jumps to 34.3 at home. Both squads rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL in aDOT (Average Depth of Target), meaning we haven’t seen many big plays from these offenses. The Saints put up 10 explosive plays against the Giants, but only two against the Steelers. Cleveland compiled 14 explosive plays in its win at Tennessee, while that number dropped to five against Pittsburgh.
This is the first time in six games that Cleveland is seeing a total above 40, as the two overs reached 51 points apiece in the first matchup with Pittsburgh and then against Tennessee. New Orleans’ two worst offensive efforts came against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, who rank in the top three in fewest points allowed per game. Cleveland sits 13th in that category, yielding 21.6 ppg, with that number creeping up after allowing 51 points the last two weeks.
Both offenses sit 20th or lower in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush and each are off their worst offensive efforts of the season. Teams after playing the Steelers this season are 4-2 to the under, so look for that trend to continue in New Orleans.
Browns vs Saints prediction: Under 43.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to 42.5 (-110).
