Five weeks ago was a display of perhaps the most embarrassing brand of football we’ve seen this season. The Giants, in position to kick the game-winning field goal in overtime against their rival, failed to follow through. Cam Skattebo fumbled on the Washington 24-yard line. The Commanders followed it with arguably the most shocking ending in any football game ever, by allowing the clock to expire despite having possession on the Giants’ 24-yard line. It was unsettling and cringey to watch.
Both programs will look for vindication in the rematch. On paper, the Giants certainly appear to be the better team. At 5-2-1, they own a solid lead in the NFC East.
Jayden Daniels got his share of criticism after botching a victory in Week 5, but there’s no doubt the Commanders are better with him on the field. In four games back, Daniels has been steady with 990 passing yards, no interceptions, and six total touchdowns. He also ran for 103 yards when he battled the Giants over a month ago, showing no loss of athleticism or confidence following an injury-prone year. Thanks to Daniels and an above average run-blocking front, the Commanders are top-10 in yards per rush (4.5). Injuries continue to plague their wide-receiving corps, which is now led by Stefon Diggs, the former Marylander in his first year playing for DC.
Defensively the Commanders have their moments but they qualify as a below-average unit. While their statistics may not be soaring, we must also consider their opposition. After a tie against the Giants, Washington had close losses against two of the best rosters in the NFL – the 49ers and the LA Rams – and they beat up on the hobbled Eagles. We saw their defense at their best at times last Sunday, limiting the Rams to only 20 points.
History tends to repeat itself and while the new-look Giants aren’t always flashy, they’re anchored by a rising defense and great execution when it matters (they’re top three on fourth down and top seven in red-zone touchdowns). John Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for these improvements, since they were consistently among the worst in the same categories the past few seasons.
Cam Skattebo should return on Thursday night, which is a major uptick for their backfield. Despite missing a game and being held back for fumbling issues early in the season, Skattebo remains top-20 in rushing yards (418) and yards per run (4.3). His last outing at Houston in Week 7 was his best yet, rumbling for 124 yards on just 17 carries. JJ McCarthy incurred a minor hip injury on Sunday but should start on Thursday night. He’s been unremarkable but solid in two games (377 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions). Malik Nabers continues a special campaign in 2026, a bona fide top-receiver in the NFL (648 yards) despite dealing with a quarterback carousel.
The Giants will put up some points and the Commanders’ defense will win some battles, too. It’s when Jayden Daniels has the ball that matters more to our handicap. The Giants’ defensive coordinator, Dennard Wilson, is starting to attract attention as one of the league’s best young coaches. His defense appears to be improving every week, now ranked top-nine in opponent yards per play (5.0) and second overall in opponent yards per pass (6.0). We’ve watched every Giants game and can confirm they pass the eye-test; unlike recent iterations, the 2026 Big Blue defense flies to the ball with violent intent. Their depth chart is also teeming with young talent, like rookie linebacker Arvell Reese, who leads his team in solo tackles (49). League-wide, only Alex Singleton (50) has more.
After letting Daniels run and pass all over them in Week 5, Wilson will make adjustments in the rematch. Home field advantage, the return of energy-spark Cam Skattebo and a better defense grants New York more edges than the market is alleging.
Commanders vs Giants prediction: Giants -2.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number to -120.
The Commanders and the Giants both have regrettable moments from Week 5 and from last weekend, but we wouldn't necessarily say that it's an inaccurate depiction of either team. Washington faced the Rams in Myles Garrett's first game back since Week 1. The terrifying duo of Garrett and Aaron Donald lived up to its hype, limiting a run-first Washington offense to just 60 yards on the ground. Garrett earned three sacks on his own.
On the Giants’ side, although sloppy, they pulled out a win in a low-scoring game against their bitter rival. Even with more QB carouseling and no Skattebo, they were resilient when it mattered.
Washington’s offense is objectively better with Daniels behind center, but they’re not good enough to overcome a top-tier defense. The Giants don’t profile as a top defense just yet, but they may be on their way. Last week their front-seven finally had a breakout game, recording seven sacks on Joe Milton. In Week 7, New York stifled the Texans in east Texas, against a group that ranks as a top-10 offense (Houston gained just 237 yards and 15 first downs).
With the Giants’ quarterback situation seemingly always in flux, we expect John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to keep leaning on their rushing attack, especially with Skattebo returning. New York already excels in controlling the ball (second in time of possession), a tactic they will surely deploy to try and keep the ball away from Jayden Daniels’ able hands.
Putting it another way, we frankly have no idea where points are coming from in this game. Both offenses qualify as bottom-three in explosive plays, each defense is formidable, and each play-caller prefers to lean on the run-game. This is 3-4 points too high.
Commanders vs Giants prediction: Under 41.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 39.5 (-110).
