When you see pictures of yourself at five years old wearing a Dan Marino jersey, growing up just 35 minutes from the Orange Bowl, it's hard not to call yourself a Dolphins fan. That said, even though Miami is due for an eventual win, I don't think it comes on Sunday in East Rutherford. Last week in New England, we saw a very capable Jets defense hold the Patriots to a hard-earned 26 points. Malik Willis is a much different challenge than Drake Maye. In Week 6, Willis accounted for just one touchdown and committed three turnovers, while Maye threw for three touchdowns without giving the ball away. The differences don't stop there, but we'll leave it at this: New York’s defense will likely be too much for the Dolphins, and Miami's defense may not have enough grit to keep the Jets from taking off.
Miami enters this weekend 0-5 and last in the AFC East. The Jets haven't fared much better with wins, but they are 2-4 and third in the division. Despite owning just two victories, New York has either won outright or covered the spread in four of six games. The Dolphins put up a respectable 24 points last week, but they're still searching for their first win and have failed to cover in three of five contests with one push. The stats and the records don't lie. Miami looks outmatched on the road, while the Jets appear to be the better team entering Sunday's matchup.
The Jets have added a couple of weapons this season and have been less than a touchdown away from winning three of their four losses. They look improved from last year's team, and that progress has shown up in the results, even if the record doesn't fully reflect it. The Dolphins have experienced the opposite. Miami lost several key pieces from its offense, and that decline has shown up on the field as they remain winless through five games. In New York's two victories this season, both came by at least five points. With the Jets appearing to be the better team on both sides of the ball, and having home-field advantage, that trend looks likely to continue on Sunday. I like the Jets to cover by as much as a touchdown.
Jets vs Dolphins prediction: Jets -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5 (-115).
