These teams have gone in different directions with their total numbers, as Las Vegas is 6-2 to the over and San Francisco is 4-3 to the under. The 49ers are one of seven teams allowing fewer than 20 points per game, but it has been very inconsistent. San Francisco has yielded 17 or fewer points four times, but also has given up 29+ points three times, including in its recent loss at Atlanta.
The Raiders allow the second-most points in the NFL at 28.8 ppg, one point fewer than Arizona. Las Vegas sits 25th in defensive EPA/Pass, 21st in defensive EPA/Rush, and 30th in defensive success rate. The Raiders allowed four field goals and three TDs to the Jets, as New York’s 33 points were the most it scored this season.
Each of the last three road games for Las Vegas has easily cleared the over, finishing with 71, 62, and 62 combined points. In each of the past six contests overall, the Raiders and their opponents have combined for 56+ points. The two lowest-scoring games for Las Vegas came against the Dolphins and Chargers, the two worst offenses in the league.
San Francisco’s offense has scored 24 or fewer points in three of the last four games. QB Brock Purdy put up multiple TD passes in each of his first five games, but has thrown only one TD in the past two contests. Sunday marks the second time the Niners will have a total of higher than 50, closing below the total of 51.5 in their last win against Washington, 23-17. This is an overreaction to all of Las Vegas’ defense issues, while San Francisco hasn’t gotten its offense going recently.
Raiders vs 49ers prediction: Under 52.5 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to 51.5.
Las Vegas started the season at 3-0, then lost four straight games, but bounced back with a 38-33 victory over the Jets last Sunday. The Raiders allowed at least 30 points in five consecutive games, with three of their opponents scoring their season-high.
The 49ers sit atop the NFC West at 6-1, but look to rebound from their first loss at Atlanta two weeks ago, 29-20. San Francisco is fresh off the bye week as the Niners were held to their lowest point total of the season, while the Falcons limited them to six points in the second half. QB Brock Purdy is facing the Raiders for the second time in his career, as he won at Las Vegas in overtime in 2023 as 10-point favorites in a 37-34 victory. The Raiders are making their first trip to the Bay Area since a 34-3 defeat at San Francisco in 2018.
The 49ers rank first in the NFL in offensive success rate (52.6%), second in EPA/Pass, and fourth in EPA/Rush. For as bad as the Raiders’ defense has been all season, they certainly have not seen an offense as dynamic as this one. Las Vegas is 6-2 against the spread, but this will be the highest underdog spot for the Raiders this season. San Francisco has failed to cover in its past two opportunities against Washington and Atlanta, while going 1-2 ATS as a favorite of at least a touchdown.
The Niners outgained the Falcons in yardage, explosive plays (12-6), and offensive success rate, but four turnovers did them in, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Purdy. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad won and covered all five games in 2025 coming off a loss. The Raiders have hung tough and been solid underdogs, but look for the 49ers to dice up this poor Las Vegas defense in a home blowout.
Raiders vs 49ers prediction: 49ers -9.5 (-112) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10 (-110).
