Both teams’ quarterback situations point to the Under. Mike Macdonald said the team will manage Lock’s throwing workload, which points to a run-heavy plan leaning on a defense that ranks seventh at 19.9 points allowed per game and second at 156.0 passing yards allowed per game. The early forecast also calls for morning rain and a chance of afternoon showers in Seattle.
Arizona’s switch to Gardner Minshew shouldn’t move this number either. He was sharp in relief against Dallas, going 17-of-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns, but he is 17-30 as a starter. In his last 25 starts, he has averaged 219 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 19 interceptions, and he went 2-7 in his last full stint as a starter with the 2024 Raiders. Sunday is his first start for Arizona, and it comes on the road against an elite pass defense without Love or Bourne. Seattle has offensive question marks too, with WR Rashid Shaheed (knee) and LT Charles Cross questionable.
The over is 5-3 in Arizona’s games, mostly because of a defense that allows 29.8 points per game. Conversely, the under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings, and September’s game in Arizona produced only 38 points. With Seattle protecting Lock’s elbow and Minshew facing a defense that rarely gives up big plays through the air, I expect this game to land in the high 30s.
Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Under 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 38.5 (-110).
The defending champions are in a rut. Seattle is 4-4 after a 34-17 home loss to Chicago on Monday night, its third defeat in four games, and the offense went just 1-for-11 on third down. Now the Seahawks are without Sam Darnold, who suffered a quad injury and cracked a rib in that game. Drew Lock will start on a short week, but he has been limited in practice for two weeks with an elbow injury. "He's able to throw. How much? We're working through that right now," Mike Macdonald said Wednesday. Arizona is 3-5, but it rallied from 17-3 down to beat Dallas 33-30 in overtime after Gardner Minshew replaced the benched Jacoby Brissett and went 17-of-23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns. Minshew will start Sunday; Brissett was traded to Baltimore. Things move quickly in this league.
Laying nearly double digits with a backup quarterback whose arm is in question is too much for me. Arizona is 4-0 ATS as a road underdog this season and has won outright on the road against the Chargers, Rams and Cowboys. Seattle, meanwhile, is 3-5 ATS and has scored 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. The Cardinals have also found a spark on the ground, with Tyler Allgeier running for a career-high 147 yards on 11 carries in Dallas, including a 63-yard touchdown.
The Cardinals are thin at the skill positions, as rookie RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle) and WR Kendrick Bourne (leg) were both placed on injured reserve this week. However, with Seattle's offense sputtering and its quarterback hurt, I'll take the points.
Cardinals vs Seahawks prediction: Cardinals +8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5 (-110).
