Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 11/01/26

It will be a showdown in the perennially up-for-grabs NFC South when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Tampa Bay started the season 0-4, but it has won two of its last three games and Baker Mayfield is back. Things are suddenly looking not-so-bad for the Bucs, who destroyed the division-rival Panthers 43-13 in Carolina last weekend. Mayfield will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, too, against former head coach Kevin Stefanski (it did not end well between the two in Cleveland several years ago). It isn't a confident play given the tossup nature of this matchup, but my Falcons vs Bucs prediction is the home team on the money line.

The Falcons handed the 49ers their first loss last week, but it was an extremely banged-up San Francisco squad. Atlanta had previously lost two in a row at the hands of Baltimore and Chicago -- both at home. This team has talent, but it is simply too all over the place to be trusted. A laundry list of injuries on defense plus a couple of questionable players on offense (RB Brian Robinson Jr., WR Olamide Zaccheaus and OT Jawaan Taylor) also doesn't help. I think the Bucs have a good chance to win outright, but I'm not giving 2.5 points in a game that - even in Tampa Bay - should really be a pick 'em.

Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction: Bucs ML (-136) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

The Atlanta Falcons' offense has been rolling along nicely on a mostly consistent basis since quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3. Penix comes in with a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-to-0 over the past two games) and earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for his performance in last Sunday's 29-20 victory over San Francisco. When opposing defenses have to focus on Bijan Robinson, Penix can go to work. That is part of the reason why my Falcons vs Bucs prediction is Over 44.5.

Tampa Bay rushed for a whopping 258 yards in last weekend's 43-13 humiliation of Carolina. Atlanta's run defense was once in dominant form but has struggled over the past two weeks. It let the Ravens go for 208 yards on the ground in Week 5 and allowed 123 yards on 5.3 yards per carry to the 49ers. At least 54 points have been scored in four of the last five head-to-head matchups between these two NFC South rivals and another relatively high-scoring affair should be in the cards.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction: Over 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.