The Steelers leave the cool autumn air of western Pennsylvania for the warmth of central Florida this weekend. It isn't just the weather heating up, either. The Buccaneers return home riding the momentum of a 24-16 upset victory over the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football, a result that produced enough points to clear this Sunday's total of 39.5. Coincidentally, both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay played in three games that finished over that number and two that stayed below it this season. Maybe that's not a coincidence at all. If recent trends are any indication, these two teams could have no trouble working together to push this game total into the 40s and perhaps well beyond.
The Steelers' last three games have all produced totals well into the 50s, and conventional wisdom would suggest a step back could be coming. Even so, we don't need another shootout in that range for the over to cash. A total of 40 points would be enough, allowing both trends to hold true. Tampa Bay's last four games have featured 42 points or fewer, which helps explain why oddsmakers have set this number so low. That said, I believe there are several factors being overlooked. For starters, the Buccaneers' rookie quarterback should be brimming with confidence, and the entire team returns home with momentum after its impressive victory in Dallas.
Jalon Daniels and the Buccaneers hung 24 points on the Cowboys in Dallas, and now they return home with confidence and momentum on their side. The Steelers are coming off a 34-point performance of their own against the Colts, making it difficult to ignore the offensive potential on both sidelines. While this matchup may appear to have the ingredients of a defensive battle and features a rookie quarterback newly at the helms, I believe there's a better chance we're in for an offensive showcase. I can easily envision a final score landing somewhere in the 27-24 or 23-24 range or even pushing higher, which is exactly why I love the over.
Buccaneers vs Steelers prediction: Over 39.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to over 41.5 (-110).
